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作者：Zarifhonarvar, Ali
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：This paper studies the generation of inflation expectations using generative AI in survey experiments, examining diverse agents created with both proprietary and open-source large language models (LLMs). It shows that model architecture significantly impacts expectations, with proprietary models generally exhibiting less disagreement in their responses than open-source alternatives. Some LLMs predict higher inflation than actual rates, aligning with patterns observed in the Survey of Consumer ...
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作者：Zhang, Zhonghui; Luan, Fushu; Kao, Chihwa
作者单位：Nanjing Audit University; University of Connecticut
摘要：We develop a framework for decision-making under model uncertainty, grounded in Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization. In contrast to standard Kullback-Leibler approaches constrained by absolute continuity, Wasserstein ambiguity sets constructed via optimal transport permit the adversary to physically relocate probability mass to new states, capturing economically relevant support-shifting distortions-structural breaks, regime shifts, and catastrophic tail events-that the reference ...
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作者：Hernandez-Roman, Luis G.
摘要：The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented disruptions in global supply chains (GSC), coupled with large fiscal stimulus. This paper employs a proxy structural VAR model to examine GSC shocks, the Federal Reserve's response, and their propagation under two counterfactual policy rules. Large fiscal stimulus amplifies inflation while cushioning the downturn from GSC shocks. Historically, the Fed has looked through price surges and adopted a loose stance. The first counterfactual, which stabilise...
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作者：Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; Goensch, Johannes
作者单位：Leibniz Association; RWI - Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Dortmund University of Technology; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：Using a large and representative panel survey of German households, we document sizable and persistent biases in workers' expectations regarding job stability and job finding. Workers in East Germany are substantially more pessimistic than workers in West Germany. Motivated by this evidence, we incorporate biased expectations into a frictional labor market model and analytically study their implications for wage bargaining, equilibrium unemployment and vacancies, and welfare. We explicitly mod...
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作者：Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai; Winkler, Fabian
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We propose a novel explanation for persistent movements in the natural rate of interest, or r-star, based on a model of two-sided learning between the central bank and the private sector. Each side has some information about r-star fundamentals and also learns from observing output, inflation and interest rates. When both sides fail to recognise that their actions influence the other's beliefs, a hall-of-mirrors effect arises that causes persistent shifts in r-star in response to cyclical shoc...
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作者：Bullard, James; Grimaud, Alex; Salle, Isabelle; Vermandel, Gauthier
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB); Technische Universitat Wien; University of Ottawa; University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; Universite PSL; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed's reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation. We derive a closed-form solution that retains the entire time-varying cross-sectional distribution of subjective inflation beliefs. We estimate the model using Bayesian techniques on both US macroeconom...
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作者：Kang, Kee-Youn; Wang, Zijian
作者单位：University of Liverpool; Wilfrid Laurier University
摘要：This paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the welfare implications of aggregate-demand information derived from payment data. The disclosure of such information tends to improve aggregate welfare when interest rates are low but may reduce welfare when rates are high. If a central bank controls information disclosure, it can craft noisy messages that encourage investment and benefit welfare through a form of Bayesian persuasion. If the information is instead produced by pri...
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作者：Birinci, Serdar; Karahan, Fatih; Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt
作者单位：Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey; National University of Singapore
摘要：We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with a frictional labor market and on-the-job search to study how employer-to-employer (EE) transitions affect macroeconomic outcomes and monetary policy. We show that accounting for market incompleteness quantitatively alters the positive and normative implications of EE fluctuations. Under imperfect self-insurance, when a higher EE rate causes higher inflation and a higher real interest rate, wealthy individuals - who are more sensitive to...
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作者：Ide, Enrique; Talamas, Eduard
作者单位：University of Navarra; IESE Business School
摘要：We analyze how Artificial Intelligence (AI) reshapes global knowledge work in a two-region world where firms organize production hierarchically to use knowledge efficiently: the most knowledgeable individuals specialize in problem-solving, while others perform routine work. Before AI, the Advanced Economy specializes in problem-solving services, whereas the Emerging Economy focuses on routine work. AI converts compute - which is located in the Advanced Economy - into autonomous AI agents that ...
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作者：Ben Zhang, Miao
