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作者：Ortiz, Julio L.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Widespread adoption of just-in-time (JIT) production has reduced inventory holdings. This paper measures the share of publicly traded manufacturing firms that adopted JIT since 1980 and quantifies a trade-off created by JIT between firm profitability and vulnerability to supply disruptions. Empirically, JIT adopters experience higher sales and less volatility on average while also exhibiting heightened sensitivity to aggregate supply chain pressures. I explain these facts in a structurally est...
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作者：Jovanovic, Boyan; Rousseau, Peter L.
作者单位：New York University; Vanderbilt University
摘要：We model several ways in which AI may improve decisions, raise the productivity of firms, and raise human capital growth. Each focuses on activities that involve problem solving, with solutions being guided by signals. If AI raises the accuracy of the signals, humans will then make better decisions - individually and in groups.
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作者：Franceschini, Fabio
摘要：This paper provides empirical evidence that shocks to aggregate Research and Development (R&D) exert persistent effects on macroeconomic dynamics and represent a significant source of risk for investors, consistent with ' long-run risk' models. The analysis focuses on ' effective R&D', the unique scaling of R&D that, across a broad class of models, maintains a linear relationship with productivity growth. This measure theoretically captures the entire contribution of R&D to productivity, flexi...
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作者：Bundick, Brent; Cairo, Isabel; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：Asymmetries play an important role in many macroeconomic models. We show that assumptions on household and firm expectations play a key role in determining the effects of these asymmetries on macroeconomic outcomes. If households and firms have perfect foresight and hence do not account for the possibility of future shocks, then the implied longer-run averages and distributions can differ significantly from their rational expectations counterparts. We first derive this result analytically in a...
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作者：Qiu, Zhesheng; Wang, Yicheng; Xu, Le; Zanetti, Francesco
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); Peking University; Shanghai Jiao Tong University; University of Oxford
摘要：This paper studies monetary policy design in small open economies with cross-border and input-output linkages. We derive the divine coincidence (DC) Phillips curve linking the output gap to a DC index that weights each sector's inflation by sectoral contents in domestic consumption and exports, and of domestic labor. Output gap targeting can be implemented by stabilizing the DC index, which assigns larger weights to sectors that supply more inputs directly or indirectly to domestic output and ...
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作者：Gemmi, Luca; Valchev, Rosen
作者单位：University of Bologna; Boston College
摘要：We find empirical evidence that surveys of professional forecasters are biased by strategic incentives. First, we find that individual forecasts overreact to idiosyncratic information but underreact to common information. We show this is consistent with a model of strategic diversification incentives in forecast reporting where forecasters want to optimally stand out from the crowd, and thus report forecasts that exaggerate the agents' true beliefs. Second, we show that no such biases are pres...
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作者：Mendoza, Enrique G.; Quadrini, Vincenzo
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; ; University of Southern California;
摘要：The protracted fall in the real interest rate of the 1991-2020 period indicates that global demand for financial assets grew much faster than supply. We propose a two-region model of private capital flows to show that two drivers of global prosperity played a key role in this phenomenon: faster growth in emerging economies (EMEs) and financial development in advanced (AEs) and emerging economies. The model also predicts that asset portfolios became riskier and made countries more vulnerable to...
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作者：Lippi, Francesco; Moracci, Elia
作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University;
摘要：We use a large granular dataset to analyze the households' choice between cash and card payments. Empirically, both the size of the transaction and the amount of cash on hand appear as significant covariates of the payment choice. We unveil a novel interaction between these two variables: the critical size for a card purchase depends on the amount of cash on hand. We present a tractable model of payment choices, featuring non-universal acceptance of cards by merchants, and a random expenditure...
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作者：Wang, Qiaochu
摘要：This paper documents the rise and adoption of AI-powered pricing across the U.S. economy and studies its implications for firm outcomes and monetary policy transmission. Using Lightcast job-posting text to infer firm-level adoption, the authors establish stylized empirical facts about (1) how AI-pricing adoption rates change over time, (2) the determinants of which firms adopt AI pricing, (3) how AI pricing is associated with firm performance, and (4) how AI pricing impacts firms' responses to...
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作者：Bianchi, Javier; Coulibaly, Louphou
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Cambridge
摘要：Central banks with flexible exchange rate regimes are often reluctant to let their currency float, a phenomenon known as fear of floating. We develop a framework in which a floating exchange rate may exacerbate vulnerability to self-fulfilling financial crises rather than provide the intended insulation against external shocks. A commitment to a crawling peg-where the currency can fluctuate within a predetermined band-can help mitigate the risk of self-fulfilling crises. In contrast to the Mun...
