Monetary policy trade-offs amid global supply chain disruptions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hernandez-Roman, Luis G.
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103934
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: credit spreads; news; US

摘要

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented disruptions in global supply chains (GSC), coupled with large fiscal stimulus. This paper employs a proxy structural VAR model to examine GSC shocks, the Federal Reserve's response, and their propagation under two counterfactual policy rules. Large fiscal stimulus amplifies inflation while cushioning the downturn from GSC shocks. Historically, the Fed has looked through price surges and adopted a loose stance. The first counterfactual, which stabilises inflation, entails less accommodation and yields a more favourable inflation-output trade-off, reflecting greater price flexibility and limited output losses. The second, which minimises a dual-mandate loss function under inflation targeting (IT) or average inflation targeting (AIT), calls for greater initial easing. Relative to IT, AIT implies a looser policy that generates more persistent inflation and ultimately requires a contractionary response, worsening the trade-off.