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作者：Rychalovska, Yuliya; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, Rafael
作者单位：University of Namur; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium
摘要：This paper proposes a strategy to exploit timely information from survey data to disentangle the effects of persistent and transitory shocks driving the real business cycle in DSGE models. Enhanced identification of fundamental shocks leads to significant improvement in the model's fit. We also examine how structural models with alternative expectation formation mechanisms can address the limitations in information processing often observed in surveys. Our analysis shows that Rational Expectat...
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作者：Birinci, Serdar; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; See, Kurt
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; National University of Singapore
摘要：Between 2020 and 2023, the fraction of retirees in the working-age population in the U.S. increased above its pre-pandemic trend. Several explanations have been proposed to rationalize this gap, including increases in net worth, the deterioration of the labor market with higher job separations, the expansion of fiscal transfer programs, and higher mortality risk. We develop an incomplete markets, overlapping generations model with a frictional labor market to quantitatively study the interacti...
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作者：Fujiwara, Ippei; Matsuyama, Kiminori
作者单位：Keio University; ; Northwestern University;
摘要：We propose a mechanism through which the rising market concentration causes the flattening of the Phillips curve. By extending the New Keynesian model using Homothetic Single Aggregator (HSA) demand systems, we show that a higher entry cost reduces the number of firms, which raises the markup rate and lowers the pass-through rate, thereby structurally flattening the Phillips curve. Additionally, an endogenous entry creates cost-push shocks through strategic complementarity, biasing empirical e...
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作者：Puri, Indira; Veldkamp, Laura
作者单位：New York University; Columbia University
摘要：We combine insights from the medical and artificial intelligence (AI) literatures to propose a novel model, which suggests that the expansion of AI may exacerbate cognitive inequality. Information providers maximize profit by tailoring the complexity of content, offering less cognition-enhancing content to less able customers. While individuals with high cognitive abilities may benefit from this increased within-cognitive-group homogeneity, those with lower cognitive abilities-and even childre...
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作者：Lehr, Nils H.; Restrepo, Pascual
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Yale University
摘要：Leading AI firms claim to prioritize social welfare. How should firms with a social mandate price and deploy AI? We derive pricing formulas that depart from profit maximization by incorporating incentives to improve welfare and reduce labor disruptions. Using US data, we evaluate several scenarios. A welfarist firm that values both profit and welfare should price closer to marginal cost, as efficiency gains outweigh distributional concerns. A conservative firm focused on labor-market stability...
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作者：Kobielarz, Michal L.; Spallek, Carolin
摘要：We examine how wage flexibility affects the transmission of economic shocks within a monetary union using a two-agent New Keynesian small open economy model. We show that, in the presence of financially constrained households, greater wage flexibility can amplify shocks rather than mitigate them. This amplification arises through an income channel that dominates the standard expenditure-switching mechanism when price flexibility is limited. The critical threshold of price flexibility required ...
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作者：Flynn, Joel P.
作者单位：; Yale University
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作者：Shirota, Toyoichiro
作者单位：Aoyama Gakuin University
摘要：This study explores optimal monetary policy in an economy with seasonal wage staggering. The findings reveal that the slope of the Phillips curve and the weights in the welfare loss function systematically differ by quarter. Consequently, optimal policy responses vary depending on the timing of shocks within a calendar year. However, implementing history-dependent policy rules can effectively mitigate much of the welfare deterioration that would otherwise occur when policymakers fail to adopt ...
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作者：Moro, Alessandro; Landi, Valerio Nispi
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：We set up a multi-country New Keynesian model to study the effects of a geoeconomic fragmentation shock, modeled as an increase in the tax rates on goods, commodities, and bonds purchased from rival countries. First, we derive a closed-form solution of the model by using a symmetric calibration on two blocs of countries, and we show analytically that geoeconomic fragmentation reduces output. The effect on PPI inflation is ambiguous, depending positively on the importance of commodities in the ...
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作者：Bojeryd, Jesper; Vestman, Roine; Tyrefors, Bjorn; Kessel, Dany
作者单位：Stockholm University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Gothenburg; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
摘要：Empirical studies have estimated a large range of consumption responses to changes in housing prices. Using a quasi-experiment, we estimate a shock of-19.4 percent to single-family house prices in the area surrounding an airport in Stockholm after its operations were unexpectedly continued as a result of political bargaining behind closed doors. Using a household data set with information on the locations of primary residences relative to the airport, we find a short-run elasticity with respec...
