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作者：Rock, Daniel
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
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作者：Crechet, Jonathan; Lale, Etienne; Tarasonis, Linas
作者单位：University of Ottawa; ; York University - Canada; Universite de Montreal; Bank of Lithuania; Vilnius University
摘要：Cross-country employment differences are concentrated among women, youth, and older individuals. In this paper, we estimate employment, unemployment and labor-force participation flows by age and gender and study their contributions to aggregate employment differences across a large panel of European countries. Employment outflows are the main source of employment variation for prime-age men, whereas the inflows are quantitatively more important for women and young individuals. In addition, la...
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作者：Audoly, Richard
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：I build a tractable random search model with firm dynamics, on-the-job search, and aggregate shocks. Multi-worker firms make recruitment decisions, choose whether to enter or exit the market, and design wage contracts. Tractability is obtained by showing that, under a set of assumptions on the recruitment technology, the decisions of workers and firms are fully summarized by the firms' current productivity. I confront the model to salient business cycle moments on the reallocation of workers a...
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作者：Hornstein, Andreas; Karabarbounis, Marios; Kurmann, Andre; Lale, Etienne; Ta, Lien
摘要：Unemployment insurance (UI) acts both as a disincentive for labor supply and as a demand stimulus, which may explain why empirical studies often find limited effects of UI on employment. This paper provides independent estimates of the disincentive effects arising from the largest expansion of UI in U.S. history, the pandemic unemployment benefits. Using high-frequency data for a representative sample of restaurants and retailers, we control for demand effects by comparing neighboring business...
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作者：Zhang, Zhonghui; Luan, Fushu; Kao, Chihwa
作者单位：Nanjing Audit University; University of Connecticut
摘要：We develop a framework for decision-making under model uncertainty, grounded in Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization. In contrast to standard Kullback-Leibler approaches constrained by absolute continuity, Wasserstein ambiguity sets constructed via optimal transport permit the adversary to physically relocate probability mass to new states, capturing economically relevant support-shifting distortions-structural breaks, regime shifts, and catastrophic tail events-that the reference ...
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作者：Ye, Lei
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：U.S. product markets have become more concentrated since the late 1990s, with higher markups, weaker entry, and slower productivity growth. This paper studies whether consolidation in the U.S. banking sector has contributed to these trends. Empirically, I show that higher bank concentration is associated with rising product market markups, lower entry, and a reallocation of market power toward large incumbents. I interpret these patterns in a quantitative endogenous growth model with imperfect...
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作者：Li, Haishi
作者单位：University of Hong Kong
摘要：Using a new database on global multinational production (MP), I document that world multinational enterprise (MNE) sales declined as sharply as trade during the Great Recession (2008-2009). This collapse was driven by MNEs from a few key headquarters countries and associated with steeper GDP declines in MP-intensive countries. MNEs amplified the trade collapse because their overall sales fell while they maintained higher trade intensity than domestic firms. In a calibrated quantitative model w...
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作者：Giovanardi, Francesco; Kaldorf, Matthias
作者单位：University of Bologna; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：This paper studies the interaction between bank capital regulation and climate policy through the lens of a quantitative multi-sector DSGE model with bank failure and firm default. We find that tilted bank capital requirements can support a re-allocation away from the fossil energy sector and reduce aggregate emissions, although the effect is small compared to emission taxes. Since tilted capital requirements also reduce liquidity provision to households, the associated welfare gains are even ...
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作者：Antonova, Anastasiia; Muller, Gernot J.
作者单位：Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：When confronted with sectoral shocks, policymakers often resort to targeted, sector-specific taxes in an ad hoc fashion. Based on the New Keynesian Network model, we characterize the optimal tax response to sectoral shocks: it features twice as many tax instruments as there are sectors, is budget-neutral, and not confined to the sector where the shock originates. We show that the optimal policy can be approximated by a simple rule that responds to inflation in the shocked sector and adjusts ta...
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作者：Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Kieren, Pascal; Trautmann, Stefan
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank; Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg
摘要：Economists widely rely on measures of inflation expectations and uncertainty elicited via density forecasts. This approach, which asks respondents to assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges, has proven highly informative, but also faced criticism in recent periods of elevated and volatile inflation. We propose a new method to elicit the full distribution of inflation expectations, which is rooted in decision theory and can be implemented in standard surveys. In two large surveys and a lab...
