-
作者：Angelova, Victoria; Dobbie, Will; Yang, Crystal S.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Human decision-makers frequently override the recommendations generated by predictive algorithms, but it is unclear whether these discretionary overrides add valuable private information or reintroduce human biases and mistakes. We develop new quasi-experimental tools to measure the impact of human discretion over an algorithm on the accuracy of decisions, even when the outcome of interest is only selectively observed, in the context of bail decisions. We find that 90% of the judges in our set...
-
作者：Spiegler, Ran
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; University of London; University College London
摘要：When inferring causal effects from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers but also lay people is to control for potential confounders. Inappropriate controls produce erroneous causal inferences. I model decision-makers (DMs) who use endogenous observational data to learn actions' causal effect on payoff-relevant outcomes. Different DM types use different controls. Their resulting choices affect the very correlations they learn from, thus calling for an equilibrium an...
-
作者：Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel
作者单位：University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：We develop a test for instrument strength based on the bias of two-stage least squares (2SLS) that (1) generalizes Stock and Yogo's and Sanderson and Windmeijer's tests to be robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation, and (2) extends Montiel Olea and Pflueger's robust test for models with a single endogenous regressor to multiple endogenous regressors. Our test can be based either on an absolute bias criterion or on the 2SLS bias relative to a worst-case benchmark. We also develop exten...
-
作者：Bjorkegren, Daniel; Blumenstock, Joshua E.; Knight, Samsun
作者单位：Columbia University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Toronto
摘要：When a policy prioritizes one person over another, is it because they benefit more, or because they are preferred? This paper develops a method to uncover the values consistent with observed allocation decisions. We estimate how much each person benefits from an intervention, and then reconcile the allocation with (i) the welfare weights assigned to different people; (ii) heterogeneous treatment effects of the intervention; and (iii) weights on different outcomes. We demonstrate this approach ...
-
作者：Fagereng, Andreas; Guiso, Luigi; Pistaferri, Luigi
作者单位：BI Norwegian Business School; Stanford University
摘要：We use population data on capital income and wealth holdings for Norway to measure asset positions and wealth returns before individuals marry and after the household is formed. These data allow us to establish a number of novel facts. First, individuals sort on personal wealth rather than parental wealth. Second, people match also on their personal returns to wealth, and assortative mating on returns is as strong as that on wealth. Third, post-marriage returns on family wealth reflect in equa...
-
作者：Bachmann, Rudiger; Born, Benjamin; Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Kocharkov, Georgi; Luetticke, Ralph; Weber, Michael
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Bonn; Deutsche Bundesbank; European Central Bank; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Purdue University System; Purdue University; European School of Management & Technology; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We exploit Germany's temporary three-percentage-point value-added tax (VAT) cut in the second half of 2020 to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on household consumption expenditures and their perceived pass-through of the tax change into prices, and a HANK model to quantify the effects of this VAT policy. The survey and scanner data show that the temporary VAT reduction led to a relative increase in durable and, to a lesser extent, semi...
-
作者：Dilme, Francesc; Garrett, Daniel F.
作者单位：University of Bonn; University of Essex
摘要：A seller with commitment power sets prices over time. Risk-averse buyers arrive to the market and decide when to purchase. We show that it is optimal for the seller to choose a constant high price punctuated by occasional episodes of sequential discounts that occur at random times. This optimal price-path has the property that the price a buyer ends up paying is independent of his arrival and purchase times, and only depends on his valuation. Our theory accommodates empirical findings on the t...
-
作者：Bigio, Saki; Shi, Liyan
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Carnegie Mellon University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We study repurchase options (repo contracts) in a competitive asset market with adverse selection. Gains from trade emerge from a liquidity need, but private information about asset quality prevents the full realization of trades. In equilibrium, a single repo contract pools all assets. The embedded repurchase option mitigates adverse selection by improving the volume of trades relative to outright sales. However, liquidity provision can be inefficiently low as lenders compete to attract high-...
-
作者：Bai, Yan; Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor; Storesletten, Kjetil
作者单位：University of Rochester; University of Pennsylvania; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：We provide a macroeconomic theory where demand for goods has a productive role. A search friction prevents perfect matching between producers and potential customers. Larger demand induces more search, which, in turn, increases GDP and measured total factor productivity (TFP). We embed the product-market friction in a standard neoclassical model and estimate it using Bayesian techniques. Business cycles are driven by preference shocks, true technology shocks, and investment-specific shocks. Pr...
-
作者：Chiang, Yu-Ting; Zoch, Piotr
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of Warsaw
摘要：We show that the financial sector's asset supply elasticities are sufficient statistics summarizing its macroeconomic effects for a large class of financial frictions. These elasticities are crucial for a wide range of policy questions, ranging from the size of fiscal multipliers to the relative effectiveness of asset purchases targeting the financial sector versus tax cuts targeting households. Workhorse macroeconomic models imply different values of these elasticities, generating output resp...
