What Do Policies Value?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bjorkegren, Daniel; Blumenstock, Joshua E.; Knight, Samsun
• 署名单位: Columbia University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Toronto
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdaf089
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: Conditional cash transfers; program; POOR

摘要

When a policy prioritizes one person over another, is it because they benefit more, or because they are preferred? This paper develops a method to uncover the values consistent with observed allocation decisions. We estimate how much each person benefits from an intervention, and then reconcile the allocation with (i) the welfare weights assigned to different people; (ii) heterogeneous treatment effects of the intervention; and (iii) weights on different outcomes. We demonstrate this approach by analyzing Mexico's PROGRESA anti-poverty programme. The analysis reveals that while the programme prioritized certain subgroups-such as indigenous households-the fact that those groups benefited more implies that the programme did not actually assign them a higher welfare weight. We also find evidence that the policy valued outcomes differently from households. The PROGRESA case illustrates how the method makes it possible to audit existing policies, and to design future policies that better align with values.