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作者：Chen, Xiaohong; Gentry, Matthew; Li, Tong; Lu, Jingfeng
作者单位：Yale University; State University System of Florida; Florida State University; Vanderbilt University; National University of Singapore
摘要：We study identification and inference in first-price auctions with risk-averse bidders and selective entry, building on a flexible framework we call the Affiliated Signal with Risk Aversion (AS-RA) model. Assuming exogenous variation in either the number of potential bidders (N) or a continuous instrument (z) shifting opportunity costs of entry, we provide a sharp characterization of the nonparametric restrictions implied by equilibrium bidding. This characterization implies that risk neutrali...
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作者：Villa, Alessandro T.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：Motivated by a secular increase in the concentration of the U.S. banking industry, I develop a new macroeconomic model with oligopolistic financial intermediaries and heterogeneous firms. Market power allows banks to price discriminate and charge firm-specific markups, exerting greater market power over productive and more financially constrained firms. This dampens capital accumulation and amplifies the effects of macroeconomic shocks. During a crisis, banks exploit the higher share of financ...
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作者：Baley, Isaac; Blanco, Andres
作者单位：Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; Pompeu Fabra University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：We study aggregate capital dynamics in an investment model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks, fixed capital adjustment costs, and irreversibility driven by a wedge between capital purchase and resale prices. We derive sufficient statistics that capture the role of investment frictions in aggregate capital fluctuations, measure these statistics using investment microdata, and exploit them to discipline the capital price wedge. Irreversibility doubles the persistence of capital fluctuations...
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作者：Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone; Hansen, Lars Peter; Maccheroni, Fabio; Marinacci, Massimo
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University; University of Chicago
摘要：We use decision theory to confront uncertainty that is sufficiently broad to incorporate models as approximations. We presume the existence of a featured collection of what we call structured models that have explicit substantive motivations. The decision-maker confronts uncertainty through the lens of these models, but also views these models as simplifications, and hence, as misspecified. We extend the max-min analysis under model ambiguity to incorporate the uncertainty induced by acknowled...
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作者：Hartung, Benjamin; Jung, Philip; Kuhn, Moritz
作者单位：European Central Bank; Dortmund University of Technology; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Mannheim; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：A key question in labour market research is how the unemployment insurance system affects unemployment rates and labour market dynamics. We provide new answers to this old question by studying one of the largest unemployment insurance reforms in recent decades, the German Hartz reforms. On average, lower separation rates into unemployment account for 76% of declining unemployment after the reform, a fact unexplained by existing research focussing on job-finding rates. Exploiting institutional ...
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作者：Caplin, Andrew; Gregory, Victoria; Lee, Eungik; Leth-Petersen, Soren; Saeverud, Johan
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Copenhagen; University of Copenhagen
摘要：We introduce a survey instrument to measure earnings risk allowing for the possibility of quitting or being fired from the current job. We find these transitions to be the key drivers of subjective risk. A link with administrative data provides multiple credibility checks and reveals that subjective earnings risk varies systematically across the population. It is also many times smaller than traditional estimates even when conditioning richly on demographics and job history. We show that subje...
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作者：Hwang, Ilwoo; Kim, Kyungmin; Boleslavsky, Raphael
作者单位：Seoul National University (SNU); Emory University; Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education (PASSHE); Indiana University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We consider an oligopoly model in which each firm chooses not only its price but also its advertising strategy regarding how much, and what, product information to provide. To highlight firms' strategic incentives, we impose no structural restrictions on feasible advertising content, so that each firm can disclose or conceal any information. We obtain a comprehensive characterization of the equilibrium advertising strategy and provide some sufficient conditions for the existence of symmetric p...
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作者：Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Hacioglu-Hoke, Sinem; Bluwstein, Kristina
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Bank of England
摘要：We exploit information in patent applications to construct an instrumental variable for the identification of technology news shocks that relaxes all the identifying assumptions traditionally used in the literature. The instrument recovers news shocks that have no effect on aggregate productivity in the short-run, but are a significant driver of its trend component. The shock prompts a broad-based expansion in anticipation of the future increase in total factor productivity (TFP), with output,...
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作者：Jessen, Jonas; Jessen, Robin; Galecka-Burdziak, Ewa; Gora, Marek; Kluve, Jochen
作者单位：IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Warsaw School of Economics; Humboldt University of Berlin
摘要：We quantify micro and macro effects of changes in the potential benefit duration (PBD) in unemployment insurance. In Poland, the PBD is 12 months for the newly unemployed if the previous year's county unemployment rate is more than 150% of the national average, and 6 months otherwise. We exploit this cut-off using regression discontinuity estimates on registry data containing the universe of unemployed from 2005 to 2019. For those whose PBD is directly affected by the policy rule, benefit reci...
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作者：Brotherhood, Luiz; Kircher, Philipp; Santos, Cezar; Tertilt, Michele
作者单位：University of Barcelona; Cornell University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Inter-American Development Bank; University of Mannheim
摘要：This paper investigates the importance of the age composition for pandemic policy design. To do so, it introduces an economic framework with age heterogeneity, individual choice, and incomplete information, emphasising the value of testing. Calibrating the model to the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic reveals an 80% reduction in the death toll due to voluntary actions and the lockdown implemented in the US. The optimal lockdown, however, is more stringent than what was implemented. Moreover, the social ...
