A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Bachmann, Rudiger; Born, Benjamin; Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Kocharkov, Georgi; Luetticke, Ralph; Weber, Michael
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Bonn; Deutsche Bundesbank; European Central Bank; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Purdue University System; Purdue University; European School of Management & Technology; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdag055
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: monetary-policy; consumption dynamics; Tax incentives; demand; sales

摘要

We exploit Germany's temporary three-percentage-point value-added tax (VAT) cut in the second half of 2020 to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on household consumption expenditures and their perceived pass-through of the tax change into prices, and a HANK model to quantify the effects of this VAT policy. The survey and scanner data show that the temporary VAT reduction led to a relative increase in durable and, to a lesser extent, semi-durable spending for individuals with high perceived pass-through. According to the HANK model, the VAT policy increased total aggregate consumption spending by 4.4% on impact.