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作者：Duarte, Raul; Finan, Frederico; Larreguy, Horacio; Schechter, Laura
作者单位：Harvard University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：Politicians rely on political brokers to buy votes throughout much of the developing world. We investigate how social networks facilitate these vote-buying exchanges. Our conceptual framework suggests brokers should be particularly well-placed within the network to learn about non-copartisans' reciprocity in order to target transfers effectively. As a result, parties should recruit brokers who are central among non-copartisans. We combine village network data from brokers and citizens with bro...
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作者：Bozio, Antoine; Breda, Thomas; Grenet, Julien; Guillouzouic, Arthur
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：We analyse earnings responses to six large payroll tax and income tax reforms in France. Our findings indicate full pass-through to workers when there is a strong and transparent link between contributions and expected benefits. In contrast, employer payroll taxes with no tax-benefit linkage exhibit limited pass-through to workers, while income tax nominally borne by employees show nearly full pass-through. Together with a meta-analysis of the literature, we interpret these results as empirica...
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作者：Li, Danielle; Raymond, Lindsey; Bergman, Peter
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：This article views hiring as a contextual bandit problem: to find the best workers over time, firms must balance exploitation (selecting from groups with proven track records) with exploration (selecting from under-represented groups to learn about quality). Yet modern hiring algorithms, based on supervised learning approaches, are designed solely for exploitation. Instead, we build a resume screening algorithm that values exploration by evaluating candidates according to their statistical ups...
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作者：Ghosh, Arkadev; Kundu, Prerna; Lowe, Matt; Nellis, Gareth
作者单位：Duke University; University of British Columbia; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Non-family-based institutions for socializing young people may play a vital role in creating close-knit, inclusive communities. We study the potential for youth camps-integrating rituals, sports, and civics training-to strengthen intergroup cohesion. We randomly assigned Hindu and Muslim adolescent boys, from West Bengal, India, to 2-week camps or to a pure control arm. To isolate mechanisms, we cross-randomized collective rituals (such as singing the national anthem, wearing uniforms, chantin...
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作者：Blanchard, Emily J.; Bown, Chad P.; Johnson, Robert C.
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Peterson Institute for International Economics; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：How do global value chain (GVC) linkages modify countries' incentives to impose import protection? Are these linkages important determinants of trade policy in practice? We develop a new approach to modelling tariff setting with GVCs, in which optimal policy depends on the nationality of value-added content embedded in home and foreign final goods. Theory predicts that discretionary tariffs will be decreasing in the domestic content of foreign-produced final goods and the foreign content of do...
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作者：Della Lena, Sebastiano; Merlino, Luca Paolo; Zenou, Yves
作者单位：Monash University; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; University of Southampton
摘要：We study opinion dynamics in a social network consisting of two groups. Agents update their opinions by conforming to members of their own group while rejecting the views of the opposing group (affective polarization), and by listening to a media outlet that may provide biased information. We characterize the long-run opinions and identify when affective polarization and media bias lead to ideological polarization, persistent disagreement, or failures of learning. We also derive when informati...
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作者：Celik, Gorkem; Strausz, Roland
作者单位：ESSEC Business School; Humboldt University of Berlin
摘要：We study monopolistic certification in markets where sellers possess partial private information about product quality. A certifier can provide information through two channels: screening sellers' private information (soft information) and acquiring new quality data (hard information). We prove that any certification menu achieving less than maximal screening is Pareto dominated by one with full screening. Among Pareto-efficient menus, the certifier's profit-maximizing menu provides maximal so...
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作者：Liski, Matti; Salanie, Francois
作者单位：Aalto University; INRAE; Communaute d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse (Comue); Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
摘要：We propose a simple and general model of experimentation in which reaching untried levels of a stock variable may, after a stochastic delay, lead to a catastrophe. Hence, at any point in time a catastrophe might well be under way, due to past experiments. We show how to measure this legacy of the past from prior beliefs and the chronicle of stock levels. We characterize the optimal policy as a function of the legacy and show that it leads to a new protocol for planning that applies to a genera...
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作者：Drechsel, Thomas
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political pressure, I develop a narrative identification strategy based on President Nixon's pressure on Fed Chair Burns. I exploit this narrative through restrictions on a structural vecto...
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作者：Arias, Jonas E.; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Shin, Minchul; Waggoner, Daniel F.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：We propose an approach for Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions. The linchpin of our approach is a class of rotation-invariant time-varying SVARs in which the prior and posterior densities of any sequence of structural parameters belonging to the class are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the sequence. Our methodology is new to the literature. In contrast to existing algorithms for inference based on sign restr...
