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作者：Hampole, Menaka; Truffa, Francesca; Wong, Ashley
作者单位：Yale University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Columbia University
摘要：Women continue to be underrepresented in corporate leadership positions. This article studies the role of social connections in women's career advancement. We investigate whether access to a larger share of female peers in business school affects the gender gap in senior managerial positions. Merging administrative data from a top 10 U.S. business school with public LinkedIn profiles, we first document that female MBAs are 24% less likely than male MBAs to enter senior management within 15 yea...
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作者：Correia, Sergio; Luck, Stephan; Verner, Emil
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1863 through 2024 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive noncore funding. These commonalities imply that bank failures are highly predictable using simple accounting metrics from publicly available financial statements. Failures with runs were common before deposit insurance, but the...
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作者：Andre, Peter; Schirmer, Philipp; Wohlfart, Johannes
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; University of Bonn; University of Cologne
摘要：Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations is not well understood. This article explores economic agents' mental models of what drives returns. We survey the general population, retail investors, financial professionals, and academic experts to investigate how they forecast and explain future returns in scenarios with stale news about future company earnings. We find that investors strongly disagree in their forecasts and reasoning....
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作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; Lanzani, Giacomo; Shleifer, Andrei
作者单位：University of Oxford; Bocconi University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University
摘要：We present a theory of choice in which attention to the features of options is determined by the decision maker's categorization of the current problem in a set of problems she solved in the past. Categorization depends on goal-relevant and contextual problem-level features. The model yields heterogeneity in attention and choice in a given problem based on different past experiences and instability when changes in irrelevant context cause recategorization. We show that heterogeneous and unstab...
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作者：Bilal, Adrien; Kanzig, Diego R.
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are an order of magnitude larger than previously thought. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1 degrees C warming reduces world GDP by over 20% in the long run. Global temperature correlates strongly with extreme climatic events, unlike country-level temperature used in previous work, explaining our larger estimate. We use this evidence to estimate damage functions in a neoclassical growth mod...
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作者：Nguyen, Kieu-Trang
作者单位：University of Melbourne
摘要：This article shows that a CEO's trust enhances innovation within a firm, providing a novel micro-foundation for the well-known trust-growth relationship. I build a new matched CEO-firm-patent data set covering 5,753 CEOs in 3,598 U.S. public firms and 700,000 patents during 2000-2011. I exploit variation in generalized trust across CEO ethnic origins, inferred from their last names using deanonymized historical censuses. Following CEO turnovers, a one standard deviation increase in a CEO's gen...
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作者：Afrouzi, Hassan; Blanco, Andres; Drenik, Andres; Hurst, Erik
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Chicago
摘要：We develop a model that integrates modern theories of labor market flows with nominal wage rigidities to study the consequences of inflation on the labor market. Nominal wage stickiness incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions after an unexpected increase in the price level. Such dynamics lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower real wages-two facts observed during the recent inflation period. The calibrated model jointly match...
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作者：Ang, Desmond; Chinoy, Sahil
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Nearly 400,000 Black men were drafted into the National Army during World War I, where they toiled primarily as menial laborers in segregated units. Leveraging novel variation from the World War I draft lottery and millions of digitized military and NAACP records, we document the pioneering role these men played in the early civil rights movement. Relative to observably similar individuals from the same draft board, Black men randomly inducted into the Army were significantly more likely to jo...
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作者：Graeber, Thomas; Noy, Shakked; Roth, Christopher
作者单位：University of Zurich
摘要：Information often spreads and influences beliefs regardless of its reliability. We show that this occurs in part because indicators of reliability tend to be lost in the process of word-of-mouth transmission. We conduct controlled experiments where participants listen to economic forecasts and pass them on through voice messages. Other participants listen either to original or transmitted audio recordings and report incentivized beliefs. Across various transmitter incentive schemes, a claim's ...
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作者：Espin-Sanchez, Jose-Antonio; Gil-Guirado, Salvador; Ryan, Nicholas
作者单位：Yale University; University of Murcia
摘要：We study rainmaking as an instrumental religious belief. We present a model in which a religious leader tries to persuade people to believe. Praying for rain can persuade only where the hazard of rainfall during a dry spell is increasing over time, so that prayer is most likely to succeed when people most want rain. We present evidence from prayers for rain in Murcia, Spain, where the hazard rate is increasing, that the church's prayers for rain predict rainfall over two centuries. To generali...
