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作者：Arteaga, Carolina; Barone, Victoria
作者单位：University of Toronto; University of Notre Dame
摘要：In this article, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: the opioid epidemic and the political realignment between the Republican and Democratic parties. Drawing on unsealed records from litigation against Purdue Pharma, we uncover rich geographic variation in the marketing of prescription opioids that serves as a quasi-exogenous source of exposure to the epidemic. We use this variation to document signifi...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Restrepo, Pascual
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Yale University
摘要：This article studies the effects of automation in a task-based economy in which some jobs pay workers rents-wages above workers' outside options. We show that automation targets high-rent tasks, dissipating rents, amplifying wage losses, and reducing within-group wage dispersion in exposed groups. This form of rent dissipation is inefficient and offsets the productivity gains from automation. Using U.S. data from 1980 to 2016, we find evidence of sizable rent dissipation and reduced within-gro...
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作者：Emanuel, Natalia; Harrington, Emma; Pallais, Amanda
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Virginia; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：How does proximity to coworkers affect training and productivity? We study software engineers at a Fortune 500 firm from 2019 to 2024, leveraging two shocks to proximity: the office closures in 2020 and the subsequent return-to-office mandates in 2022 and 2023. In both cases, co-located teams experienced bigger changes in proximity than distributed ones, facilitating difference-in-differences designs. We find that sitting near teammates increases coding feedback by 18.3% and improves code qual...
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作者：Arellano, Cristina; Bai, Yan; Mihalache, Gabriel
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：This article develops a New Keynesian model with sovereign default risk. Inflation is set by forward-looking firms, monetary policy is an interest rate rule, and the fiscal government borrows externally, long-term, with an option to default. In this framework, default risk creates inflation pressures through an expectations channel, and tight monetary policy disincentivizes fiscal overborrowing. The model sheds light on temporary inflation events in emerging-market data: short-lived spikes in ...
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作者：Besley, Timothy; Dann, Christopher; Dray, Sacha
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Stanford University; The World Bank
摘要：This article explores the relationship between economic growth and trust in government using variation in GDP growth experienced over a lifetime since birth. We assemble a newly harmonized global data set across 11 major opinion surveys, comprising 3.3 million respondents in 166 countries since 1990. Exploiting cohort-level variation, we find that people who have experienced higher GDP growth are more prone to trust their governments, with larger effects found in democracies. Higher-growth exp...
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作者：Bostanci, Gorkem; Ordonez, Guillermo
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Stock markets play a dual role: they provide information about firms' fundamentals, which improves resource allocations, and they provide liquidity. We propose a setting in which these two roles interact: if stocks are used more intensively for liquidity, then prices reveal less information about fundamentals. We structurally estimate stock price informativeness for several countries and show that it declines when alternative liquidity sources, such as banks, are in distress. To study the real...
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作者：Ash, Elliott; Chen, Daniel L.; Naidu, Suresh
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Communaute d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse (Comue); Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Columbia University
摘要：This article empirically studies the effects of the early law and economics movement on the U.S. judiciary. We focus on the Manne Economics Institute for Federal Judges, an intensive economics course that trained almost half of federal judges between 1976 and 1999. Using the universe of published opinions in U.S. Circuit Courts and 1 million District Court criminal sentencing decisions, we estimate the within-judge effect of Manne program attendance. Selection into attendance was limited, as t...
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作者：Barbosa-Alves, Mauricio; Bianchi, Javier; Sosa-Padilla, Cesar
作者单位：University of Kentucky; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article investigates how a government should manage international reserves when it faces the risk of a rollover crisis. We ask: Should the government accumulate reserves or reduce debt to make itself less vulnerable? We show that the optimal policy entails initially reducing debt, followed by a subsequent increase in both debt and reserves as the government approaches a safe zone. Furthermore, we find that issuing additional debt to accumulate reserves can lead to a reduction in sovereign...
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作者：Alsan, Marcella; Neberai, Yousra
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：This article examines how the American Medical Association (AMA) helped shape the development of the U.S. health insurance system in the critical period after World War II. Working with the political public relations firm Campaigns, Inc., the AMA launched a nationwide campaign to weaken support for national health insurance by framing it as socialized medicine, while simultaneously enrolling people in private health insurance plans to shift demand away from a public alternative. Drawing on new...
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作者：Kuziemko, Ilyana; Longuet-Marx, Nicolas; Naidu, Suresh
作者单位：Princeton University; Stanford University; Columbia University
摘要：We argue that the Democratic Party's evolution on economic policy helps explain partisan realignment by education. First, we document that educated Americans differentially oppose predistribution (e.g., job guarantees, higher minimum wages, protectionism, and stronger unions), while the educational gradient for redistribution (taxes and transfers) is close to zero. These relationships have been largely unchanged since the 1940s. Second, focusing on politicians and donors as key party actors, w...
