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作者：Harstad, Bard; Holtsmark, Katinka
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Oslo
摘要：We analyze a fundamental dilemma and time-inconsistency problem facing climate-concerned producers of natural gas. In the short term, it is tempting to produce more to outcompete coal. When this policy is anticipated, however, investments in renewables fall and emissions may ultimately increase. When the gas producers cannot precommit, their policies can be counterproductive. A simulated version applied to Europe verifies that the gas trap is quantitatively important. We discuss the robustness...
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作者：Di Tella, Sebastian; Hebert, Benjamin; Kurlat, Pablo; Wang, Qitong
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Southern California
摘要：We use equity returns to construct a time-varying measure of the zero-beta interest rate: the expected return of a stock portfolio orthogonal to the stochastic discount factor. In contrast to safe rates, the zero-beta rate fits the aggregate consumption Euler equation remarkably well both unconditionally and conditional on monetary policy shocks and is high, volatile, and persistent enough to explain the average return and most of the volatility of the market portfolio. The puzzle is why safe ...
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作者：Espinosa, Miguel; Stanton, Christopher
作者单位：Bocconi University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines how training affects productivity across hierarchical layers within organizations. After a randomized training program for frontline employees at a government agency, trained workers' output increased while their requests for managerial assistance fell. This freed managers to focus on strategic tasks-particularly managers with the strongest connections to trained employees. A structural model of organizational hierarchy shows that spillovers to managers account for approxim...
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作者：Abaluck, Jason; Compiani, Giovanni; Zhang, Fan
作者单位：Yale University; University of Chicago; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：We state conditions under which choice data suffice to identify preferences when consumers may not be fully informed about attributes of goods. Our approach can be used to test for full information, forecast how consumers will respond to information, and conduct welfare analysis when consumers are imperfectly informed. In a lab experiment, we successfully forecast the average response to new information when consumers engage in costly search. In data from Expedia, our method identifies which a...
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作者：Daruich, Diego
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：To study long-run large-scale early childhood policies, this paper incorporates early childhood investments into a general equilibrium heterogeneous agent overlapping generations model calibrated using US data. A randomized controlled trial evaluation of a short-run small-scale early childhood program in the model predicts effects on children's education and income that are similar to the empirical evidence. A long-run large-scale program, however, yields over twice as large welfare gains as t...
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作者：Londono-Velez, Juliana; Rodriguez, Catherine; Sanchez, Fabio; Alvarez-Arango, Luis Esteban
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia); University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We study the impact of financial aid on upward mobility. We estimate the causal impacts of a Colombian policy targeting high-achieving, low-socioeconomic-status students on later-life educational and labor market outcomes. Using regression discontinuity design, difference-in-differences, and population-wide administrative microdata, we find that the policy boosted attendance and completion at high-value-added colleges, particularly in STEM fields. Improved college quality led to greater skill ...
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作者：Cook, Nikolai; Duprey, Thibaut; Heyes, Anthony; Pelli, Martino
作者单位：Wilfrid Laurier University; Bank of Canada; University of Birmingham; Asian Development Bank
摘要：Mayshar, Moav, and Pascali apply an instrumental variables identifica tion strategy to data from nearly 1,000 societies included in the Ethno graphic Atlas to claim that cultivation of cereals (appropriable by elites), rather than increased land productivity following the adoption of ag riculture, led to the development of the state. We show two things. (1) Evidence for the appropriability theory holds when moving from a tribe-chiefdom to a state and not more broadly. (2) Conclusions are drive...
