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作者：Hsu, Yu-Chin; Huber, Martin; Lee, Ying-Ying; Liu, Chu-An
作者单位：Academia Sinica - Taiwan; National Central University; National Chengchi University; National Taiwan University; University of Fribourg; University of California System; University of California Irvine
摘要：We propose a Cram & eacute;r-von Mises-type test for testing whether the mean potential outcome given a specific treatment level has a weakly monotonic relationship with the continuous treatment under unconfoundedness. To flexibly control for a possibly high-dimensional set of covariates, our test is based on a double debiased machine learning method. We show that our test controls asymptotic size and is consistent against any fixed alternative. We apply our test to evaluate the Job Corps prog...
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作者：Mu, Yingfei; Rubin, Edward; Zou, Eric Yongchen
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; University of Oregon; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Regulators often rely on regulated entities to self-monitor compliance, creating strategic incentives for endogenous monitoring. This paper builds a framework to detect whether local governments skip air pollution monitoring when they expect air quality to deteriorate. The core of our method tests whether the timing of monitor shutdowns coincides with the counties' air quality alerts-public advisories based on local governments' own pollution forecasts. Applying the method to a monitor in Jers...
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作者：Landaud, Fanny; Maurin, Eric; Willage, Barton; Willen, Alexander
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; ENSAE Paris; Paris School of Economics; University of Colorado System; Children's Hospital Colorado; University of Colorado Anschutz; University of Colorado Denver; National Bureau of Economic Research; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：paper provides novel evidence on the causal effect of high school Grade Point Average (GPA) on the human capital development and labor market trajectory of individuals. Causal identification is achieved by exploiting a unique feature of the Norwegian education system that produces exogenous variation in GPA among high school students. We find little effect on the number of completed years of higher education, but significant effects on the number and quality of higher education programs availa...
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作者：Besley, Timothy; Fetzer, Thiemo; Mueller, Hannes
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Warwick; University of Bonn; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：This paper estimates the size of the media multiplier, an easily generalizable model-based measure of how far media coverage magnifies the economic response to shocks. We combine monthly aggregated and anonymized credit card activity data from 114 card-issuing countries in 5 destination countries with a large corpus of news coverage in issuing countries reporting on violent events in the destinations. To define and quantify the media multiplier, we estimate a model in which latent beliefs, sha...
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作者：Buser, Thomas; Niederle, Muriel; Oosterbeek, Hessel
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We assess the predictive power of two measures of competitiveness for education and labor market outcomes using a large, representative survey panel. The first is incentivized and is an online adaptation of the laboratory-based Niederle-Vesterlund measure. The second is an unincentivized survey question eliciting general competitiveness. Both measures are strong predictors of income, occupation, level of education, and field of study. The predictive power of the new unincentivized measure is r...
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作者：Snyder, Christopher M.; Zhuo, Ran
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Economics papers increasingly report balance, pretrend, placebo, and other sniff tests, rejection of which is bad news for authors, undermining the credibility of their main results. We derive nonparametric bounds on the latent proportion of significant sniff tests removed by the publication process (whether by p-hacking or relegation to the file drawer) and the proportion whose significance was due to true misspecification, not bad luck. Using a hand-collected sample of nearly 30,000 sniff te...
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作者：Baron, E. Jason; Hyman, Joshua; Vasquez, Brittany
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Amherst College; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：This paper asks whether increasing public school funding can be an effective long-run crime-prevention strategy in the United States. Specifically, we examine the effect of increases in funding early in children's lives on the likelihood that they are arrested as adults. We exploit quasi-experimental variation in public school funding, leveraging two natural experiments in Michigan and a novel administrative data set linking the universe of Michigan public school students to adult criminal jus...
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作者：Jiang, Liang; Linton, Oliver B.; Tang, Haihan; Zhang, Yichong
作者单位：Fudan University; University of Cambridge; Singapore Management University
摘要：We investigate how to improve efficiency using regression adjustments with covariates in covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) with imperfect subject compliance. Our regression-adjusted estimators, which are based on the doubly robust moment for local average treatment effects, are consistent and asymptotically normal even with heterogeneous probabilities of assignment and misspecified regression adjustments. We propose an optimal but potentially misspecified linear adjustment and its furth...
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作者：Herz, Holger; Kistler, Deborah; Zehnder, Christian; Zihlmann, Christian
作者单位：University of Fribourg; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Lausanne
摘要：We empirically assess whether hindsight bias affects citizens' evaluation of their political actors. Using an incentivized elicitation technique, we demonstrate that people systematically misremember their past policy preferences regarding how to best fight the COVID-19 pandemic. At the peak of the first wave in the United States, the average respondent mistakenly believed that they supported significantly stricter restrictions at the onset of the first wave than they actually did. Exogenous v...
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作者：Rozo, Sandra V.
