HOW BIG IS THE MEDIA MULTIPLIER? EVIDENCE FROM DYADIC NEWS DATA

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Besley, Timothy; Fetzer, Thiemo; Mueller, Hannes
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Warwick; University of Bonn; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); Barcelona School of Economics
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01415
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: Political violence; IMPACT; coverage; TOURISM; ECONOMY; shocks; PEACE; TRADE

摘要

This paper estimates the size of the media multiplier, an easily generalizable model-based measure of how far media coverage magnifies the economic response to shocks. We combine monthly aggregated and anonymized credit card activity data from 114 card-issuing countries in 5 destination countries with a large corpus of news coverage in issuing countries reporting on violent events in the destinations. To define and quantify the media multiplier, we estimate a model in which latent beliefs, shaped by either events or news coverage, drive card activity. According to the model, media coverage can more than triple the economic impact of an event. We document, through our model, that this effect is highly heterogeneous and depends on the broader media representation of countries in each other's news. We speculate about the role of the media in driving international travel patterns.