作者：Iseringhausen, Martin; Petrella, Ivan; Theodoridis, Konstantinos
作者单位：University of Turin; Collegio Carlo Alberto; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Cardiff University
摘要：We develop a data-rich measure of expected macroeconomic skewness in the U.S. economy. Expected macroeconomic skewness is strongly procyclical, mainly reflects the cyclicality in the skewness of real variables, is highly correlated with the cross-sectional skewness of firm-level employment growth, and is distinct from financial market skewness. Revisions in expected skewness lead to business cycle fluctuations nearly indistinguishable from those induced by the main business cycle shock of Ange...
作者：Geruso, Michael; Spears, Dean
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Close elections are important for many reasons, including that consequent election disputes can weaken democratic legitimacy and risk political violence. We quantify the probability of close outcomes in U.S. presidential races with novel applications of empirical election models from several sources. We show that razor-thin margins are very likely under the Electoral College (EC). And we establish that the EC causes this closeness: It would not occur under any plausibly comparable popular vote...
