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作者：Khan, Aubhik; Thomas, Julia K.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：We develop an equilibrium business cycle model where nonconvex delivery costs lead firms to follow (S, s) inventory policies. Calibrated to postwar US data, the model reproduces two-thirds of the cyclical variability of inventory investment. Moreover, it delivers strongly procyclical inventory investment, greater volatility in production than sales, and a countercyclical inventory-to-sales ratio. Our model challenges several prominent claims involving inventories, including the widely held bel...
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作者：Maggi, Giovanni; Rodriguez-Clare, Andris
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We present a model where trade agreements are motivated by the desire of governments to commit vis-a-vis domestic lobbies, in addition to standard terms-of-trade externalities. The model predicts that trade liberalization is deeper when capital is more mobile across sectors, and when governments are more politically motivated (provided domestic-commitment motives are strong enough). The model also provides a new rationale for the use of tariff ceilings. In a fully dynamic specification of the ...
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作者：Shiue, Carol H.; Keller, Wolfgang
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：Why did Western Europe industrialize first? An influential view holds that its exceptionally well-functioning markets supported with a certain set of institutions provided the incentives to make investments needed to industrialize. This paper examines this hypothesis by comparing the actual performance of markets in terms of market integration in Western Europe and China, two regions that were relatively advanced in the preindustrial period, but would start to industrialize about 150 years apa...
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作者：Fuchs, William
作者单位：University of Chicago
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作者：Koszegi, Botond; Rabin, Matthew
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We use Koszegi and Rabin's (2006) model of reference-dependent utility, and an extension of it that applies to decisions with delayed consequences, to study preferences over monetary risk. Because our theory equates the reference point with recent probabilistic beliefs about outcomes, it predicts specific ways in which the environment influences attitudes toward modest-scale risk. It replicates classical prospect theory-including the prediction of distaste for insuring losses-when exposure to ...
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作者：Costa, Dora L.; Kahn, Matthew E.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
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作者：Conlin, Michael; O'Donoghue, Ted; Vogelsang, Nmothy J.
作者单位：Michigan State University; Cornell University
摘要：Evidence suggests that people understand qualitatively how tastes change over time, but underestimate the magnitudes. This evidence is limited, however, to laboratory evidence or surveys of reported happiness. We test for such projection bias infield data. Using data on catalog orders of cold-weather items, we find evidence of projection bias over the weather-specifically, people's decisions are over influenced by the current weather. Our estimates suggest that if the order-date temperature de...
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作者：Plott, Charles R.; Zeiler, Kathryn
作者单位：California Institute of Technology; Georgetown University
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作者：Barlevy, Gadi
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：Economists have recently argued recessions play a useful role in fostering growth. Yet a major source of growth, R&D, is procyclical. This paper argues one reason for procyclical R&D is a dynamic externality inherent in R&D that makes entrepreneurs short-sighted and concentrate their innovation in booms, even when it is optimal to concentrate it in recessions. Additional forces may imply that procyclical R&D is desirable, but equilibrium R&D is likely to be too procyclical, and,macroeconomic s...
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作者：Simpson, John; Wickelgren, Abraham L.
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：Previous papers by Eric B. Rasmusen, J. Mark Ramseyer, and John S. Wiley, Jr. (1991) and Ilya R. Segal and Michael D. Whinston (2000) argue that exclusive contracts can inefficiently deter entry in the presence of scale economies and multiple buyers. We first show that these results no longer hold when buyers are final consumers who can breach these contracts and pay expectation damages. We then show, however, that exclusive contracts can inefficiently deter entry if buyers are downstream comp...
