Projection bias in catalog orders
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Conlin, Michael; O'Donoghue, Ted; Vogelsang, Nmothy J.
署名单位：
Michigan State University; Cornell University
刊物名称：
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
ISSN/ISSBN：
0002-8282
DOI：
10.1257/aer.97.4.1217
发表日期：
2007
页码：
1217-1249
关键词：
摘要：
Evidence suggests that people understand qualitatively how tastes change over time, but underestimate the magnitudes. This evidence is limited, however, to laboratory evidence or surveys of reported happiness. We test for such projection bias infield data. Using data on catalog orders of cold-weather items, we find evidence of projection bias over the weather-specifically, people's decisions are over influenced by the current weather. Our estimates suggest that if the order-date temperature declines by 30 degrees F, the return probability increases by 3.95 percent. We also estimate a structural model to measure the magnitude of the bias.