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作者：Justiniano, Alejandro; Primiceri, Giorgio E.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We investigate the sources of the important shifts in the volatility of US macroeconomic variables in the postwar period. To this end, we propose the estimation of DSGE models allowing for time variation in the volatility of the structural innovations. We apply our estimation strategy to a large-scale model of the business cycle and find that shocks specific to the equilibrium condition of investment account for most of the sharp decline in volatility of the last two decades.
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作者：Farrell, Joseph; Shapiro, Carl
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We study the welfare economics of probabilistic patents that are licensed without a full determination of validity. We examine the social value of instead determining patent validity before licensing to downstream technology users, in terms of deadweight loss (ex post) and innovation incentives (ex ante). We relate the value of such pre-licensing review to the patent's strength, i.e., the probability it would hold up in court, and to the per-unit royalty at which it would be licensed. We then ...
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作者：Card, David; Blank, Rebecca M.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Brookings Institution
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作者：Feldstein, Martin
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Cogley, Timothy; Sbordone, Argia M.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：Purely forward-looking versions of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) generate too little inflation persistence. Some authors add ad hoc backward-looking terms to address this shortcoming. We hypothesize that inflation persistence results mainly from variation in the long-run trend component Of inflation, which we attribute to shifts in monetary policy. We derive a version of the NKPC that incorporates a time-varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains the dynamics of inflatio...
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作者：Gonzalez de Lara, Yadira; Greif, Avner; Jha, Saumitra
作者单位：Universitat d'Alacant; Stanford University; Harvard University
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作者：Caballero, Ricardo J.; Hoshi, Takeo; Kashyap, Anil K.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：Large Japanese banks often engaged in sham loan restructurings that kept credit flowing to otherwise insolvent borrowers (which we call zombies). We examine the implications of suppressing the normal competitive process whereby the zombies would shed workers and lose market share. The congestion created by the zombies reduces the profits for healthy firms, which discourages their entry and investment. We confirm that zombie-dominated industries exhibit more depressed job creation and destructi...
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作者：Demichelis, Stefano; Weibull, Jorgen W.
作者单位：University of Pavia; Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：Language is a powerful coordination device. We generalize the cheap-talk approach to pre-play communication by way of introducing a meaning correspondence between messages and actions, and by postulating two axioms met by natural languages. Players have a lexicographic preference, second to material payoffs, against deviating from the meaning correspondence. Under two-sided communication in generic and symmetric n x n-coordination games, a Nash equilibrium component in such a lexicographic com...
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作者：Bullard, James; Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of Oregon; Bank of Finland
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作者：Case, Anne; Paxson, Christina
作者单位：Princeton University
