Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cogley, Timothy; Sbordone, Argia M.
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Davis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.98.5.2101
• 发表日期: 2008
• 页码: 2101-2126
• 关键词: monetary-policy; staggered prices; us inflation; MODEL; optimization; beliefs; utility; shocks

摘要

Purely forward-looking versions of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) generate too little inflation persistence. Some authors add ad hoc backward-looking terms to address this shortcoming. We hypothesize that inflation persistence results mainly from variation in the long-run trend component Of inflation, which we attribute to shifts in monetary policy. We derive a version of the NKPC that incorporates a time-varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains the dynamics of inflation. When drift in trend inflation is taken into account, a purely forward-looking version of the model fits the data well, and there is no need,for backward-looking components.