-
作者：Melitz, Marc J.; Redding, Stephen J.
作者单位：Harvard University; Princeton University
摘要：We show that endogenous firm selection provides a new welfare margin for heterogeneous firm models of trade (relative to homogeneous firm models). Under some parameter restrictions, the trade elasticity is constant and is a sufficient statistic for welfare, along with the domestic trade share. However, even small deviations from these restrictions imply that trade elasticities are variable and differ across markets and levels of trade costs. In this more general setting, the domestic trade sha...
-
作者：Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Hong, Gee Hee
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We study the cyclical properties of sales, regular price changes, and average prices paid by consumers (effective prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many US metropolitan areas. Inflation in the effective prices paid by consumers declines significantly with higher unemployment while little change occurs in the inflation rate of prices posted by retailers. This difference reflects the reallocation of household expenditures across retailers, a feature o...
-
作者：Saito, Kota
作者单位：California Institute of Technology
摘要：An uncertainty-averse agent prefers betting on an event whose probability is known, to betting on an event whose probability is unknown. Such an agent may randomize his choices to eliminate the effects of uncertainty. For what sort of preferences does a randomization eliminate the effects of uncertainty? To answer this question, we investigate an agent's preferences over sets of acts. We axiomatize a utility function, through which we can identify the agent's subjective belief that a randomiza...
-
作者：Jacobsen, Mark R.; van Benthem, Arthur A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We estimate the sensitivity of scrap decisions to changes in used car values and show how this scrap elasticity produces emissions leakage under fuel efficiency standards, a process known as the Gruenspecht effect. We first estimate the effect of gasoline prices on used vehicle values and scrappage of vehicles with different fuel economies. We then estimate the scrap elasticity itself, which we find to be -0.7. When applied in a model of fuel economy standards, 13-16 percent of the expected fu...
-
作者：Khan, Urmee; Stinchcombe, Maxwell B.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Riverside; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：In many economic, political, and social situations, circumstances change at random points in time, reacting is costly, and reactions appropriate to present circumstances may become inappropriate upon future changes, requiring further costly reaction. Waiting is informative if arrival of the next change has non-constant hazard rate. We identify two classes of situations: in the first, delayed reaction is optimal only when the hazard rate of further changes is decreasing; in the second, it is op...
-
作者：Jurado, Kyle; Ludvigson, Sydney C.; Ng, Serena
作者单位：Columbia University; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty. Our estimates display significant independent variations from popular uncertainty proxies, suggesting that much of the variation in the proxies is not driven by uncertainty. Quantitatively important uncertainty episodes appear far more infrequently than indicated by popular uncertainty proxies, but when they do occur, they are larger, more persistent, and are more corr...
-
作者：Dobbie, Will; Song, Jae
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：Consumer bankruptcy is one of the largest social insurance programs in the United States, but little is known about its impact on debtors. We use 500,000 bankruptcy filings matched to administrative tax and foreclosure data to estimate the impact of Chapter 13 bankruptcy protection on subsequent outcomes. Exploiting the random assignment of bankruptcy filings to judges, we find that Chapter 13 protection increases annual earnings by $5,562, decreases five-year mortality by 1.2 percentage point...
-
作者：Kumhof, Michael; Ranciere, Romain; Winant, Pablo
作者单位：Bank of England; International Monetary Fund; Paris School of Economics
摘要：The paper studies how high household leverage and crises can be caused by changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of high-income households, a large increase in debt leverage of low-and middle-income households, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where higher leverage and crises are the endogenous result of a growing income share of high-income househo...
-
作者：Bailey, Martha J.; Goodman-Bacon, Andrew
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：This paper uses the rollout of the first Community Health Centers (CHCs) to study the longer-term health effects of increasing access to primary care. Within ten years, CHCs are associated with a reduction in age-adjusted mortality rates of 2 percent among those 50 and older. The implied 7 to 13 percent decrease in one-year mortality risk among beneficiaries amounts to 20 to 40 percent of the 1966 poor/non-poor mortality gap for this age group. Large effects for those 65 and older suggest that...
-
作者：Favara, Giovanni; Imbs, Jean
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Paris School of Economics; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：An exogenous expansion in mortgage credit has significant effects on house prices. This finding is established using US branching deregulations between 1994 and 2005 as instruments for credit. Credit increases for deregulated banks, but not in placebo samples. Such differential responses rule out demand-based explanations, and identify an exogenous credit supply shock. Because of geographic diversification, treated banks expand credit: housing demand increases, house prices rise, but to a less...
