Vehicle Scrappage and Gasoline Policy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jacobsen, Mark R.; van Benthem, Arthur A.
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20130935
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 1312-1338
• 关键词: fuel-economy standards; CONSEQUENCES; EFFICIENCY; prices; impacts; TRADE; US

摘要

We estimate the sensitivity of scrap decisions to changes in used car values and show how this scrap elasticity produces emissions leakage under fuel efficiency standards, a process known as the Gruenspecht effect. We first estimate the effect of gasoline prices on used vehicle values and scrappage of vehicles with different fuel economies. We then estimate the scrap elasticity itself, which we find to be -0.7. When applied in a model of fuel economy standards, 13-16 percent of the expected fuel savings leak away through the used vehicle market. This effect rivals or exceeds the importance of the often-cited mileage rebound effect.