The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Hong, Gee Hee
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20121546
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 993-1029
• 关键词: monetary-policy; sticky prices; inflation; substitution; promotions; models; index

摘要

We study the cyclical properties of sales, regular price changes, and average prices paid by consumers (effective prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many US metropolitan areas. Inflation in the effective prices paid by consumers declines significantly with higher unemployment while little change occurs in the inflation rate of prices posted by retailers. This difference reflects the reallocation of household expenditures across retailers, a feature of the data which we document and quantify, rather than sales. We propose a simple model with household store-switching and assess its implications for business cycles and policymakers.