Inequality, Leverage, and Crises

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kumhof, Michael; Ranciere, Romain; Winant, Pablo
• 署名单位: Bank of England; International Monetary Fund; Paris School of Economics
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20110683
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 1217-1245
• 关键词: income inequality; monetary-policy; UNITED-STATES; default; credit

摘要

The paper studies how high household leverage and crises can be caused by changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of high-income households, a large increase in debt leverage of low-and middle-income households, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where higher leverage and crises are the endogenous result of a growing income share of high-income households. The model matches the profiles of the income distribution, the debt-to-income ratio and crisis risk for the three decades preceding the Great Recession.