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作者：Adrian, Tobias; Brunnermeier, Markus K.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We propose a measure of systemic risk, Delta CoVaR, defined as the change in the value at risk of the financial system conditional on an institution being under distress relative to its median state. Our estimates show that characteristics such as leverage, size, maturity mismatch, and asset price booms significantly predict Delta CoVaR. We also provide out-of-sample forecasts of a countercyclical, forward-looking measure of systemic risk, and show that the 2006:IV value of this measure would ...
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作者：Shmaya, Eran; Yariv, Leeat
作者单位：Northwestern University; California Institute of Technology
摘要：The analysis of lab data entails a joint test of the underlying theory and of subjects' conjectures regarding the experimental design itself, how subjects frame the experiment. We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing such conjectures. We use experiments of decision making under uncertainty as a case study. Absent restrictions on subjects' framing of the experiment, we show that any behavior is consistent with standard updating (anything goes), including those suggestive of anomalies s...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Moscona, Jacob; Robinson, James A.
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Chicago; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
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作者：Bostic, William G., Jr.; Jarmin, Ron S.; Moyer, Brian
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作者：Duca, John V.; Muellbauer, John; Murphy, Anthony
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Southern Methodist University; University of Oxford; University of Oxford
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作者：Ghosh, Atish R.; Ostry, Jonathan D.; Qureshi, Mahvash S.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
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作者：Lee, Kenneth; Miguel, Edward; Wolfram, Catherine
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
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作者：Robalino, Nikolaus; Robson, Arthur
作者单位：Rochester Institute of Technology; Simon Fraser University
摘要：This paper investigates the evolutionary foundation for our ability to attribute preferences to others, an ability that is central to conventional game theory. We argue here that learning others' preferences allows individuals to efficiently modify their behavior in strategic environments with a persistent element of novelty. Agents with the ability to learn have a sharp, unambiguous advantage over those who are less sophisticated because the former agents extrapolate to novel circumstances in...
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作者：Jayaraman, Rajshri; Ray, Debraj; de Vericourt, Francis
作者单位：European School of Management & Technology; New York University; University of Warwick
摘要：We study a contract change for tea pluckers on an Indian plantation, with a higher government-stipulated baseline wage. Incentive piece rates were lowered or kept unchanged. Yet, in the following month, output increased by 20 to 80 percent. This response contradicts the standard model and several variants, is only partly explicable by greater supervision, and appears to be behavioral. But in subsequent months, the increase is comprehensively reversed. Though not an unequivocal indictment of be...
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作者：Levinson, Arik
作者单位：Georgetown University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Regulations governing the energy efficiency of new buildings have become a cornerstone of US environmental policy. California enacted the first such codes in 1978 and has tightened them every few years since. I evaluate the resulting energy savings three ways: comparing energy used by houses constructed under different standards, controlling for building and occupant characteristics; examining how energy use varies with outdoor temperatures; and comparing energy used by houses of different vin...
