Experiments on Decisions under Uncertainty: A Theoretical Framework

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Shmaya, Eran; Yariv, Leeat
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; California Institute of Technology
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20120978
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 1775-1801
• 关键词: probability; confidence; cascades; JUDGMENT; beliefs; CHOICE

摘要

The analysis of lab data entails a joint test of the underlying theory and of subjects' conjectures regarding the experimental design itself, how subjects frame the experiment. We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing such conjectures. We use experiments of decision making under uncertainty as a case study. Absent restrictions on subjects' framing of the experiment, we show that any behavior is consistent with standard updating (anything goes), including those suggestive of anomalies such as overconfidence, excess belief stickiness, etc. When the experimental protocol restricts subjects' conjectures (plausibly, by generating information during the experiment), standard updating has nontrivial testable implications.