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作者：Neggers, Yusuf
作者单位：Brown University
摘要：This paper investigates the effects of polling station administrator diversity on elections in India, using a natural experiment: the random assignment of government officials to teams managing stations on election day, together with surveys conducted with voters and election officers. I demonstrate that changes in the religious and caste composition of officer teams impact voting at the polling station level, causing shifts in coalition vote shares large enough to influence election outcomes....
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作者：Thaler, Richard H.
作者单位：University of Chicago
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作者：Chatterjee, Shoumitro; Vogl, Tom
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：Following mid-twentieth century predictions of Malthusian catastrophe, fertility in the developing world more than halved, while living standards more than doubled. We analyze how fertility change related to economic growth during this episode, using data on 2.3 million women from 25.5 household surveys. We find different responses to fluctuations and long-run growth, both heterogeneous over the life cycle. Fertility was procyclical but declined and delayed with long-run growth; fluctuations l...
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作者：Wollmann, Thomas G.
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：The entry and exit of products, rather than firms, serve as the main equilibrating force in many markets, so accurately predicting changes from a merger or bankruptcy should incorporate this behavior. This paper estimates a structural model of the US commercial vehicle market and demonstrates the importance of allowing for endogenous product offerings in the context of the $85 billion automotive industry bailout in 2009. Under alternate policies that facilitate an acquisition or liquidation of...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Restrepo, Pascual
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Boston University
摘要：We examine the concerns that new technologies will render labor redundant in a framework in which tasks previously performed by labor can be automated and new versions of existing tasks, in which labor has a comparative advantage, can be created. In a static version where capital is fixed and technology is exogenous, automation reduces employment and the labor share, and may even reduce wages, while the creation of new tasks has the opposite effects. Our full model endogenizes capital accumula...
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作者：Clemens, Michael A.; Lewis, Ethan G.; Postel, Hannah M.
作者单位：IZA Institute Labor Economics; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University
摘要：An important class of active labor market policy has received little impact evaluation: immigration barriers intended to raise wages and employment by shrinking labor supply. Theories of endogenous technical advance raise the possibility of limited or even perverse impact. We study a natural policy experiment: the exclusion of almost half a million Mexican bracero farm workers from the United States to improve farm labor market conditions. With novel labor market data we measure state-level ex...
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作者：Anderson, Siwan
摘要：More than one-half of all people living with HIV are women and 80 percent of all HIV-positive women in the world live in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper demonstrates that the legal origins of these formerly colonized countries significantly determine current-day female HIV rates. In particular, female HIV rates are significantly higher in common law sub-Saharan African countries compared to civil law ones. This paper explains this relationship by focusing on differences in female property right...
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作者：Jehiel, Philippe
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; University of London; University College London
摘要：Investors implement projects based on idiosyncratic signal observations, without knowing how signals and returns are jointly distributed. The following heuristic is studied: investors collect information on previously implemented projects with the same signal realization, and invest if the associated mean return exceeds the cost. The corresponding steady states result in suboptimal investments, due to selection bias and the heterogeneity of signals across investors. When higher signals are ass...
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作者：Berka, Martin; Devereux, Michael B.; Engel, Charles
作者单位：Massey University; University of British Columbia; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We investigate the link between real exchange rates and sectoral TFP for eurozone countries. We show that real exchange rate variation, both cross-country and time-series, closely accords with an amended Balassa-Samuelson interpretation, incorporating sectoral productivity shocks and a labor market wedge. We construct a DSGE model to generate a cross section and time series of real exchange rates to compare to data. Estimates from simulated regressions are very similar to estimates for eumzone...
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作者：Pons, Vincent
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：This paper provides the first estimate of the effect of door-to-door canvassing on actual electoral outcomes, via a countrywide experiment embedded in Francois Hollande's campaign in the 2012 French presidential election. While existing experiments randomized door-to-door visits at the individual level, the scale of this campaign (five million doors knocked) enabled randomization by precinct, the level at which vote shares are recorded administratively. Visits did not affect turnout, but incre...
