Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Clemens, Michael A.; Lewis, Ethan G.; Postel, Hannah M.
• 署名单位: IZA Institute Labor Economics; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20170765
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1468-1487
• 关键词: AGRICULTURAL LABOR; technical change; TECHNOLOGY; wages; BIAS; EMPLOYMENT; demand; IMPACT

摘要

An important class of active labor market policy has received little impact evaluation: immigration barriers intended to raise wages and employment by shrinking labor supply. Theories of endogenous technical advance raise the possibility of limited or even perverse impact. We study a natural policy experiment: the exclusion of almost half a million Mexican bracero farm workers from the United States to improve farm labor market conditions. With novel labor market data we measure state-level exposure to exclusion, and model the absent changes in technology or crop mix. We fail to reject zero labor market impact, inconsistent with this model.