Escaping Malthus: Economic Growth and Fertility Change in the Developing World

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chatterjee, Shoumitro; Vogl, Tom
• 署名单位: Princeton University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20170748
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1440-1467
• 关键词: demographic-transition; natural-selection; mortality; prices; MARKET; IMPACT; INEQUALITY; stagnation; countries; decline

摘要

Following mid-twentieth century predictions of Malthusian catastrophe, fertility in the developing world more than halved, while living standards more than doubled. We analyze how fertility change related to economic growth during this episode, using data on 2.3 million women from 25.5 household surveys. We find different responses to fluctuations and long-run growth, both heterogeneous over the life cycle. Fertility was procyclical but declined and delayed with long-run growth; fluctuations late (but not early) in the reproductive period affected lifetime fertility. The results are consistent with models of the escape from the Malthusian trap, extended with a life cycle and liquidity constraints.