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作者：Arkolakis, Costas; Ramondo, Natalia; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres; Yeaple, Stephen
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We develop a quantifiable general equilibrium model of trade and multinational production (MP) in which countries can specialize in innovation or production. Home market effects or comparative advantage leads some countries to specialize in innovation and relegate manufacturing operations to other countries via outward MP. Counterfactual analysis reveals that the reduction in the cost of MP or the integration of China into the world economy may hurt countries that are driven to specialize in p...
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作者：Ulyssea, Gabriel
作者单位：University of Oxford
摘要：This paper develops and estimates an equilibrium model where heterogeneous firms can exploit two margins of informality: (i) not register their business, the extensive margin: and (ii) hire workers off the books, the intensive margin. The model encompasses the main competing frameworks for understanding informality and provides a natural setting to infer their empirical relevance. The counterfactual analysis shows that once the intensive margin is accounted for, firm and labor informality need...
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作者：Gavazza, Alessandro; Mongey, Simon; Violante, Giovanni L.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Chicago; Princeton University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop an. equilibrium model of firm dynamics with random search in the labor market where hiring firms exert recruiting effort by spending resources to fill vacancies faster. Consistent with microevidence, fast-growing firms invest more in recruiting activities and achieve higher job-filling rates. These hiring decisions of firms aggregate into an index of economy-wide recruiting intensity. We study how aggregate shocks transmit to recruiting intensity, and whether this channel can accoun...
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作者：Cabral, Marika; Geruso, Michael; Mahoney, Neale
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Chicago
摘要：A central question in the debate over privatized Medicare is whether increased government payments to private Medicare Advantage (MA) plans generate lower premiums for consumers or higher profits for producers. Using difference-in-differences variation brought about by a sharp legislative change, we find that MA insurers pass through 45 percent of increased payments in lower premiums and an additional 9 percent in more generous benefits. We show that advantageous selection into MA cannot expla...
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作者：Halac, Marina; Yared, Pierre
作者单位：Yale University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Governments are present-biased toward spending. Fiscal rules are deficit limits that trade off commitment to not overspend and flexibility to react to shocks. We compare coordinated rules, chosen jointly by a group of countries, to uncoordinated rules. If governments' present bias is small, coordinated rules are tighter than uncoordinated rules: individual countries do not internalize the redistributive effect of interest rates. However, if the bias is large, coordinated rules are slacker: cou...
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作者：Fetter, Daniel K.; Lockwood, Lee M.
作者单位：Wellesley College; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Virginia
摘要：Many government programs transfer resources to older people and implicitly or explicitly tax their labor We shed new light on the labor supply and welfare effects of such programs by investigating the Old Age Assistance Program (OAA). Exploiting the large differences in OAA programs across states and Census data on the entire US population in 1940, we find that OAA reduced the labor force participation rate among men aged 65 74 by 8.5 percentage points, more than one-half of its 1930 1940 decl...
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作者：Plantin, Guillaume; Tirole, Jean
作者单位：Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Universite de Toulouse; Universite de Toulouse
摘要：Building Of the idea that accounting matters for corporate governance, this paper studies the equilibrium interaction between the measurement rules that firms find privately optimal, firms' governance, and the liquidity in the secondary market for their assets. This equilibrium approach reveals an excessive use of market-value accounting: corporate performance measures rely excessively on the information generated by other firms' asset sales and insufficiently on the realization of a firm's ow...
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作者：Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Zhang, Lu; Kuehn, Lars-Alexander
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：Market economies are intrinsically unstable. The standard search model of equilibrium unemployment, once solved accurately with a globally nonlinear algorithm, gives rise endogenously to rare disasters. Intuitively, in the presence of cumulatively large negative shocks, inertial wages remain relatively high., and reduce profits. The marginal costs of hiring run into downward rigidity, which stems from the trading externality of the matching process, and fail to decline relative to profits. Ine...
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作者：Conconi, Paola; Garcia-Santana, Manuel; Puccio, Laura; Venturini, Roberto
作者单位：Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Universite Libre de Bruxelles
摘要：Recent decades have witnessed a surge of trade in intermediate goods and a proliferation of free trade agreements (FTAs). FTAs use rules of origin (RoO) to distinguish goods originating from member countries from those originating from third countries. We focus on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the world's largest FTA, and construct a unique dataset that allows us to map the input-output linkages in its RoO. Exploiting cross-product and cross-country variation in treatment ov...
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作者：Kolesar, Michal; Rothe, Christoph
作者单位：Princeton University; Princeton University; University of Mannheim
摘要：We consider inference in regression discontinuity designs when the running variable only takes a moderate number of distinct values. In particular, we study the common practice of using confidence intervals (CIs) based on standard errors that are clustered by the running variable as a means to make inference robust to model misspecification (Lee and Card 2008). We derive theoretical results and present simulation and empirical evidence showing that these CIs do not guard against model misspeci...
