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作者：Doepke, Matthias; Kindermann, Fabian
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Regensburg
摘要：It takes a woman and a man to make a baby. This fact suggests that for a birth to take place, the parents should first agree on wanting a child. Using newly available data on fertility preferences and outcomes, we show that indeed, babies are likely to arrive only if both parents desire one. In addition, there are many couples who disagree on having babies, and in low-fertility countries women are much more likely than men to be opposed to having another child. We account for this evidence wit...
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作者：Freyaldenhoven, Simon; Hansen, Christian; Shapiro, Jesse M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Chicago; Brown University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We consider a linear panel event-study design in which unobserved confounds may be related both to the outcome and to the policy variable of interest. We provide sufficient conditions to identify the causal effect of the policy by exploiting covariates related to the policy only through the confounds. Our model implies a set of moment equations that are linear in parameters. The effect of the policy can be estimated by 2SLS, and causal inference is valid even when endogeneity leads to pre-even...
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作者：Naritomi, Joana
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：To investigate the enforcement value of third-party information on potentially collusive taxpayers, I study an anti-tax evasion program that rewards consumers for ensuring that firms report sales and establishes a verification system to aid whistle-blowing consumers in Sao Paulo, Brazil (Nota Fiscal Paulista). Firms reported sales increased by at least 21 percent over 4 years. The results are consistent with fixed costs of concealing collusion, increased detection probability from whistle-blow...
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作者：Anderson, Haelim; Paddrik, Mark; Wang, Jessie Jiaxu
作者单位：Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC); Office of Financial Research; United States Department of the Treasury; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：The National Banking Acts (NBAs) of 1863-1864 established rules governing the amounts and locations of interbank deposits, thereby reshaping the bank networks. Using unique data on bank balance sheets and detailed interbank deposits in 1862 and 1867 in Pennsylvania, we study how the NBAs changed the network structure and quantify the effect on financial stability in an interbank network model. We find that the NBAs induced a concentration of interbank deposits at both the city and bank levels,...
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作者：Diamond, Rebecca; McQuade, Tim; Qian, Franklin
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：Using a 1994 law change, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in the assignment of rent control in San Francisco to study its impacts on tenants and landlords. Leveraging new data tracking individuals' migration, we find rent control limits renters' mobility by 20 percent and lowers displacement from San Francisco. Landlords treated by rent control reduce rental housing supplies by 15 percent by selling to owner-occupants and redeveloping buildings. Thus, while rent control prevents displac...
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作者：Besanko, David; Doraszelski, Ulrich; Kryukov, Yaroslav
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Pennsylvania; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：We study industries where the price that a firm sets serves as an investment into lower cost or higher demand. We assess the welfare implications of the ensuing competition for the market using analytical and numerical approaches to compare the equilibria of a learning-by-doing model to the first-best planner solution. We show that dynamic competition leads to low deadweight loss. This cannot be attributed to similarity between the equilibria and the planner solution. Instead, we show how lear...
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作者：Fadlon, Itzik; Nielsen, Torben Heien
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Copenhagen
摘要：We study how health behaviors are shaped through family spillovers. We leverage administrative data to identify the effects of health shocks on family members' consumption of preventive care and health-related behaviors, constructing counterfactuals for affected households using households that experience the same shock but a few years in the future. Spouses and adult children immediately improve their health behaviors and their responses are both significant and persistent. These spillovers a...
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作者：Head, Keith; Mayer, Thierry
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：Following the 2016 Leave vote in the referendum on UK membership in the EU and the election of Donald Rump, trade agreements have entered a period of great instability. To predict the impact of possible disruptions to existing arrangements requires counterfactual analysis that takes into account the complex set of factors influencing the production and marketing strategies of multinational corporations. We estimate a model of multinational decision-making in the car industry. This model predic...
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作者：Lorenzoni, Guido; Werning, Ivan
作者单位：Northwestern University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We study slow moving debt crises: self-fulfilling equilibria in which high interest rates, due to the fear of a future default, lead to a gradual but faster accumulation of debt, ultimately validating investors' fear We show that slow moving crises arise in a variety of settings, both when fiscal policy follows a given rule and wizen it is chosen by an optimizing government. A key assumption, in all these settings, is that the borrowing government cannot commit to issue a fixed amount of bonds...
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作者：Lu, Jay
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We provide a revealed preference methodology for identifying beliefs and utilities that can vary across states. A notion of comparative informativeness is introduced that is weaker than the standard Blackwell ranking. We show that beliefs and state-dependent utilities can be identified using stochastic choice from two informational treatments, where one is strictly more informative than another. Moreover, if the signal structure is known, then stochastic choice from a single treatment is enoug...
