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作者：Mueller, Andreas; Storesletten, Kjetil; Zilibotti, Fabrizio
作者单位：University of Essex; University of Oslo; Yale University
摘要：We construct a dynamic theory of sovereign debt and structural reforms with limited enforcement and moral hazard. A sovereign country in recession wishes to smooth consumption. It can also undertake costly reforms to speed up recovery. The sovereign can renege on contracts by suffering a stochastic cost. The constrained optimal allocation (COA) prescribes imperfect insurance with non-monotonic dynamics for consumption and effort. The COA is decentralized by a competitive equilibrium with marke...
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作者：Aghion, Philippe; Bergeaud, Antonin; Boppart, Timo; Klenow, Peter J.; Li, Huiyu
作者单位：Universite PSL; College de France; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; European Central Bank; Bank of France; Stockholm University; Stanford University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：For exiting products, statistical agencies often impute inflation from surviving products. This understates growth if creatively-destroyed products improve more than surviving ones. If so, then the market share of surviving products should systematically shrink. Using entering and exiting establishments to proxy for creative destruction, we estimate missing growth in US Census data on non farm businesses from 1983 to 2013. We find missing growth (i) equaled about one-half a percentage point pe...
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作者：Schilbach, Frank
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper studies alcohol consumption among low-income workers in India. In a 3-week field experiment, the majority of 229 cycle-rickshaw drivers were willing to forgo substantial monetary payments in order to set incentives for themselves to remain sober, thus exhibiting demand for commitment to sobriety. Randomly receiving sobriety incentives significantly reduced daytime drinking while leaving overall drinking unchanged. I find no evidence of higher daytime sobriety significantly changing ...
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作者：Doepke, Matthias; Kindermann, Fabian
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Regensburg
摘要：It takes a woman and a man to make a baby. This fact suggests that for a birth to take place, the parents should first agree on wanting a child. Using newly available data on fertility preferences and outcomes, we show that indeed, babies are likely to arrive only if both parents desire one. In addition, there are many couples who disagree on having babies, and in low-fertility countries women are much more likely than men to be opposed to having another child. We account for this evidence wit...
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作者：Elias, Julio J.; Lacetera, Nicola; Macis, Mario
作者单位：University of Toronto; University Toronto Mississauga; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：We conducted a randomized survey with 2,666 US residents to study preferences for legalizing payments to kidney donors. We found strong polarization, with many participants supporting or opposing payments regardless of potential transplant gains. However, about 18 percent of respondents would switch to favoring payments for sufficiently large increases in transplants. Preferences for compensation have strong moral foundations; participants especially reject direct payments by patients, which t...
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作者：Fornaro, Luca; Romei, Federica
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：This paper describes a paradox of global thrift. Consider a world in which interest rates are low and monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound. Now imagine that governments implement prudential financial and fiscal policies to stabilize the economy. We show that these policies, while effective from the perspective of individual countries, might backfire if applied on a global scale. In fact, prudential policies generate a rise in the global supply of savings and a drop in global ...
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作者：Lustig, Hanno; Verdelhan, Adrien
作者单位：Stanford University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We assume that domestic (foreign) agents, when investing abroad, can only trade in the foreign (domestic) risk-free rates. In a preference-free environment, we derive the exchange rate volatility and risk premia in any such incomplete spanning model, as well as a measure of exchange rate cyclicality. We find that incomplete spanning lowers the volatility of exchange rate, increases the risk premia but only by creating exchange rate predictability, and does not affect the exchange rate cyclical...
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作者：Deryugina, Tatyana; Heutel, Garth; Miller, Nolan H.; Molitor, David; Reif, Julian
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University System of Georgia; Georgia State University
摘要：We estimate the causal effects of acute fine particulate matter exposure on mortality, health care use, and medical costs among the US elderly using Medicare data. We instrument for air pollution using changes in local wind direction and develop a new approach that uses machine learning to estimate the life-years lost due to pollution exposure. Finally, we characterize treatment effect heterogeneity using both life expectancy and generic machine learning inference. Both approaches find that mo...
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作者：Faber, Benjamin; Gaubert, Cecile
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Tourism is a fast-growing services sector in developing countries. This paper combines a rich collection of Mexican microdata with a quantitative spatial equilibrium model and a new empirical strategy to study the long-term economic consequences of tourism both locally and in the aggregate. We find that tourism causes large and significant local economic gains relative to less touristic regions that are in part driven by significant positive spillovers on manufacturing. In the aggregate, howev...
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作者：Nordhaus, William
作者单位：Yale University
