Brands in Motion: How Frictions Shape Multinational Production

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Head, Keith; Mayer, Thierry
• 署名单位: University of British Columbia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank; Bank of France
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer20161345
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 3073-3124
• 关键词: UNITED-STATES; TRADE; models; MARKET; agglomeration; location; margins

摘要

Following the 2016 Leave vote in the referendum on UK membership in the EU and the election of Donald Rump, trade agreements have entered a period of great instability. To predict the impact of possible disruptions to existing arrangements requires counterfactual analysis that takes into account the complex set of factors influencing the production and marketing strategies of multinational corporations. We estimate a model of multinational decision-making in the car industry. This model predicts the production reallocation and consumer surplus consequences of changes in tariffs and non-tariff barriers induced by US-led protectionism, Brexit, transpacific, and transatlantic integration agreements.