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作者：Gopinath, Gita; Boz, Emine; Casas, Camila; Diez, Federico J.; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Plagborg-Moller, Mikkel
作者单位：Harvard University; International Monetary Fund; Banco de la Republica Colombia; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Princeton University
摘要：We propose a dominant currency paradigm with three key features: dominant currency pricing, pricing complementarities, and imported inputs in production. We test this paradigm using a new dataset of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs that covers 91 percent of world trade, as well as detailed firm-product-country data for Colombian exports and imports. In strong support of the paradigm we find that (i) noncommodities terms-of-trade are uncorrelated with exchang...
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作者：Halac, Marina; Kremer, Ilan; Winter, Eyal
作者单位：Yale University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Hebrew University of Jerusalem; University of Warwick; Lancaster University
摘要：A firm raises capital from multiple investors to fund a project. The project succeeds only if the capital raised exceeds a stochastic threshold, and the firm offers payments contingent on success. We study the firm's optimal -unique-implementation scheme, namely the scheme that guarantees the firm the maximum payoff. This scheme treats investors differently based on size. We show that if the distribution of the investment threshold is -log-concave, larger investors receive higher net returns t...
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作者：Allcott, Hunt; Braghieri, Luca; Eichmeyer, Sarah; Gentzkow, Matthew
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：The rise of social media has provoked both optimism about potential societal benefits and concern about harms such as addiction, depression, and political polarization. In a randomized experiment, we find that deactivating Facebook for the four weeks before the 2018 US midterm election (i) reduced online activity, while increasing offline activities such as watching TV alone and socializing with family and friends; (ii) reduced both factual news knowledge and political polarization; (iii) incr...
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作者：Asher, Sam; Novosad, Paul
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Dartmouth College
摘要：Nearly one billion people worldwide live in rural areas without access to national paved road networks. We estimate the impacts of India's $40 billion national rural road construction program using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and comprehensive house-hold and firm census microdata. Four years after road construction, the main effect of new feeder roads is to facilitate the movement of workers out of agriculture. However, there are no major changes in agricultural outcomes, income, o...
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作者：Dovis, Alessandro; Kirpalani, Rishabh
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：Expectations of transfers by central governments incentivize overborrowing by local governments. In this paper, we ask if fiscal rules can reduce overborrowing if central governments cannot commit to enforce penalties when rules are violated. We study a model in which the central government's type is unknown and show that fiscal rules increase overborrowing if the central government's reputation is low. In contrast, fiscal rules are effective in lowering debt if the central government's reputa...
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作者：Piazzesi, Monika; Schneider, Martin; Stroebel, Johannes
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University
摘要：We study housing markets with multiple segments searched by heterogeneous clienteles. In the San Francisco Bay Area, search activity and inventory covary negatively across cities, but positively across market segments within cities. A quantitative search model shows how the endogenous flow of broad searchers to -high-inventory segments within their search ranges induces a positive relationship between inventory and search activity across segments with a large common clientele. The prevalence o...
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作者：Millner, Antony
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：The -long-run social discount rate has an enormous effect on the value of climate mitigation, infrastructure projects, and other long-term public policies. Its value is however highly contested, in part because of normative disagreements about social time preferences. I develop a theory of nondogmatic social planners, who are insecure in their current normative judgments and entertain the possibility that they may change. Although each nondogmatic planner advocates an idiosyncratic theory of i...
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作者：Bernhardt, Dan; Buisseret, Peter; Hidir, Sinem
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; University of Warwick; University of Chicago; University of Warwick
摘要：We study -multi-district legislative elections between two office-seeking parties when one party has an initial valence advantage that may shift and even reverse during the campaign; and, each party cares not only about winning a majority, but also about its share of seats. When the initial imbalance favoring one party is small, each party targets the median voter. For moderate imbalances, the advantaged party maintains the centre-ground, but the disadvantaged party retreats to target its core...
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作者：Baranov, Victoria; Bhalotra, Sonia; Biroli, Pietro; Maselko, Joanna
作者单位：University of Melbourne; University of Essex; University of Zurich; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：We evaluate the medium-term impacts of treating maternal depression on women's mental health, financial empowerment, and parenting decisions. We leverage variation induced by a cluster-randomized controlled trial that provided psychotherapy to 903 prenatally depressed mothers in rural Pakistan. It was one of the world's largest psych-otherapy interventions, and it dramatically reduced postpartum depression. Seven years after psychotherapy concluded, we returned to the study site to find that i...
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作者：Sanktjohanser, Anna
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：I consider a repeated game in which, due to imperfect monitoring, no collusion can be sustained. I add a self- interested monitor who commits to obtain private signals of firms' actions and sends a public message. The monitor makes an offer specifying the precision of the signals obtained and the amount to be paid in return. First, with a low monitoring cost, collusive equilibria exist. Second, collusive equilibria are monitor-preferred. Third, in monitor-preferred equilibria, firms' payoffs a...
