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作者：Norris, Samuel; Pecenco, Matthew; Weaver, Jeffrey
作者单位：University of Chicago; Brown University; University of Southern California
摘要：Every year, millions of Americans experience the incarceration of a family member. Using 30 years of administrative data from Ohio and exploiting differing incarceration propensities of randomly assigned judges, this paper provides the first quasi-experimental estimates of the effects of parental and sibling incarceration in the United States. Parental incarceration has beneficial effects on some important outcomes for children, reducing their likelihood of incarceration by 4.9 percentage poin...
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作者：Berger, David; Milbradt, Konstantin; Tourre, Fabrice; Vavra, Joseph
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Copenhagen Business School; University of Chicago
摘要：How much ability does the Fed have to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates? We argue that the presence of substantial debt in fixed-rate, prepayable mortgages means that the ability to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates depends not just on their current level but also on their previous path. Using a household model of mortgage prepayment matched to detailed -loan-level evidence on the relationship between prepayment and rate incentives, we argue that recent interest rat...
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作者：Eguia, Jon X.; Xefteris, Dimitrios
作者单位：Michigan State University; University of Cyprus
摘要：Vote-buying mechanisms allow agents to express any level of support for their preferred alternative at an increasing cost. Focusing on large societies with wealth inequality, we prove that the family of binary social choice rules implemented by well-behaved vote-buying mechanisms is indexed by a single parameter, which determines the importance assigned to the agents' willingness to pay to affect outcomes and to the number of supporters for each alternative. This parameter depends solely on th...
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作者：Banerjee, Abhijit; Finkelstein, Amy; Hanna, Rema; Olken, Benjamin A.; Ornaghi, Arianna; Sumarto, Sudarno
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Harvard University; University of Warwick
摘要：To investigate barriers to universal health insurance in developing countries, we designed a randomized experiment involving about 6,000 households in Indonesia who are subject to a government health insurance program with a weakly enforced mandate. Time-limited subsidies increased enrollment and attracted lower-cost enrollees, in part by reducing the strategic timing of enrollment to correspond with health needs. Registration assistance also increased enrollment, but increased attempted enrol...
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作者：Clark, Daniel; Fudenberg, Drew
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Justified communication equilibrium (JCE) is an equilibrium refinement for signaling games with cheap-talk communication. A strategy profile must be a JCE to be a stable outcome of nonequilibrium learning when receivers are initially trusting and senders play many more times than receivers. In the learning model, the counterfactual speeches that have been informally used to motivate past refinements are messages that are actually sent. Stable profiles need not be perfect Bayesian equilibria, s...
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作者：Gratton, Gabriele; Guiso, Luigi; Michelacci, Claudio; Morelli, Massimo
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Bocconi University
摘要：With inefficient bureaucratic institutions, the effects of laws are hard to assess and incompetent politicians may pass laws to build a reputation as skillful reformers. Since too many laws curtail bureaucratic efficiency, this mechanism can generate a steady state with Kafkaesque bureaucracy. Temporary surges in political instability heighten the incentives to overproduce laws and can shift the economy towards the Kafkaesque state. Consistent with the theory, after a surge in political instab...
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作者：Kohlhas, Alexandre N.; Walther, Ansgar
作者单位：Imperial College London
摘要：We document that the expectations of households, firms, and professional forecasters in standard surveys simultaneously extrapolate from recent events and underreact to new information. Existing models of expectation formation, whether behavioral or rational, cannot account for these observations. We develop a rational theory of extrapolation based on limited attention, which is consistent with this evidence. In particular, we show that limited, asymmetric attention to procyclical variables ca...
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作者：Heiss, Florian; McFadden, Daniel; Winter, Joachim; Wuppermann, Amelie; Zhou, Bo
作者单位：Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Southern California; University of Munich; Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg
摘要：Consumers' health plan choices are highly persistent even though optimal plans change over time. This paper separates two sources of inertia, inattention to plan choice and switching costs. We develop a panel data model with separate attention and choice stages, linked by heterogeneity in acuity, i.e., the ability and willingness to make diligent choices. Using data from Medicare Part D, we find that inattention is an important source of inertia but switching costs also play a role, particular...
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作者：Van den Bremer, Ton S.; Van der Ploeg, Frederick
作者单位：Delft University of Technology; University of Oxford; University of Oxford; University of Amsterdam
摘要：The social cost of carbon is the expected present value of damages from emitting one ton of carbon today. We use perturbation theory to derive an approximate tractable expression for this cost adjusted for climatic and economic risk. We allow for different aversion to risk and intertemporal fluctuations, skewness and dynamics in the risk distributions of climate sensitivity and the damage ratio, and correlated shocks. We identify prudence, insurance, and exposure effects, reproduce earlier ana...
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作者：Wang, Tianyi
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：I study the political impact of the first populist radio personality in American history. Father Charles Coughlin blended populist demagoguery, anti-Semitism, and fascist sympathies to create a hugely popular radio program that attracted 30 million weekly listeners in the 1930s. I find that exposure to Father Coughlin's anti-Roosevelt broadcast reduced Franklin D. Roosevelt's vote share in the 1936 presidential election. Coughlin's effects were larger among Catholics and persisted after Coughl...
