-
作者：Myers, Kyle R.; Lanahan, Lauren
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Oregon
摘要：We quantify the magnitude of R&D spillovers created by grants to small firms from the US Department of Energy. Our empirical strategy leverages variation due to state-specific matching policies, and we develop a new approach to measuring both geographic and technological spillovers that does not rely on an observable paper trail. Our estimates suggest that for every patent produced by grant recipients, three more are produced by others who benefit from spillovers. Sixty percent of these spillo...
-
作者：Nielsen, Kirby; Rehbeck, John
作者单位：California Institute of Technology; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：Using a laboratory experiment, we identify whether decision-makers consider it a mistake to violate canonical choice axioms. To do this, we incentivize subjects to report axioms they want their decisions to satisfy. Then, subjects make lottery choices which might conflict with their axiom preferences. In instances of conflict, we give subjects the opportunity to re-evaluate their decisions. We find that many individuals want to follow canonical axioms and revise their choices to be consistent ...
-
作者：Jones, Maria; Kondylis, Florence; Loeser, John; Magruder, Jeremy
作者单位：The World Bank; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Factor market failures can limit adoption of profitable technologies. We leverage a plot-level spatial regression discontinuity design in the context of irrigation use by farmers provided free access to water. Using irrigation boosts profits by 43-62 percent. Yet, farmers only irrigate 30 percent of plots because of labor costs. We demonstrate inefficient irrigation use, by showing farmers irrigating one plot reduce their irrigation use on other plots. This inefficiency is largest for smaller ...
-
作者：Yeh, Chen; Macaluso, Claudia; Hershbein, Brad
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
摘要：This paper quantifies employer market power in US manufacturing and how it has changed over time. Using administrative data, we estimate plant-level markdowns-the ratio between a plant's marginal revenue product of labor and its wage. We find most manufacturing plants operate in a monopsonistic environment, with an average markdown of 1.53, implying a worker earning only 65 cents on the marginal dollar generated. To investigate long-term trends for the entire sector, we propose a novel, theore...
-
作者：Antoniades, Alexis; Feenstra, Robert C.; Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy)
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Peking University
摘要：Many price indices must be constructed without quantity data at the elementary level. The paper shows that for some consumer goods in the United States and other countries, one can approximate expenditure shares using weights derived from the retail distribution of sellers. These weights are based on the share of outlets selling an item, or the share of outlets adjusted by the total number of items sold in each. Relative to using no weights, the paper finds that using such imputed weights subs...
-
作者：Bianchi, Francesco; Ludvigson, Sydney C.; Ma, Sai
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Duke University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper combines a data-rich environment with a machine learning algorithm to provide new estimates of time-varying systematic expectational errors ( belief distortions) embedded in survey responses. We find sizable distortions even for professional forecasters, with all respondent-types overweighting the implicit judgmental component of their forecasts relative to what can be learned from publicly available information. Forecasts of inflation and GDP growth oscillate between optimism and p...
-
作者：Balke, Neele; Lamadon, Thibaut
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines how employer- and worker-specific productivity shocks transmit to earnings and employment. We develop an equilibrium search model and characterize the optimal contract offered by firms. Risk-neutral firms provide partial insurance against shocks to risk-averse workers and offer contingent contracts, where payments are backloaded in good times and frontloaded in bad times. The model is estimated on matched employer-employee data from Sweden. Firms absorb persistent worker an...
-
作者：Allcott, Hunt; Gentzkow, Matthew; Song, Lena
作者单位：Microsoft; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; New York University
摘要：Many have argued that digital technologies such as smartphones and social media are addictive. We develop an economic model of digital addiction and estimate it using a randomized experiment. Temporary incentives to reduce social media use have persistent effects , sug-gesting social media are habit forming. Allowing people to set lim-its on their future screen time substantially reduces use , suggesting self-control problems. Additional evidence suggests people are inattentive to habit format...
-
作者：Caballero, Ricardo J.; Simsek, Alp
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We build a model in which the Fed and the market disagree about future aggregate demand. The market anticipates monetary policy mistakes, which affect current demand and induce the Fed to partially accommodate the market's view. The Fed expects to implement its view gradually. Announcements that reveal an unexpected change in the Fed's belief provide a microfoundation for monetary policy shocks. Tantrum shocks arise when the market misinterprets the Fed's belief and overreacts to its announcem...
-
作者：Farboodi, Maryam; Kondor, Peter
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We investigate the heterogeneous boom and bust patterns across countries that emerge as a result of global shocks. Our analysis sheds light on the emergence of core and periphery countries, and the joint determination of the depth of recessions and tightness of credit across countries. The model implies that interest rates are similar across core and periphery countries in booms, with larger credit and output growth in periphery countries. However, a common global shock that leads to a credit ...
