Heterogeneous Global Booms and Busts

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Farboodi, Maryam; Kondor, Peter
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181830
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 2178-2212
• 关键词: risk; GLOBALIZATION; PRODUCTIVITY; imbalances; valuation; MARKETS; cycles; MODEL

摘要

We investigate the heterogeneous boom and bust patterns across countries that emerge as a result of global shocks. Our analysis sheds light on the emergence of core and periphery countries, and the joint determination of the depth of recessions and tightness of credit across countries. The model implies that interest rates are similar across core and periphery countries in booms, with larger credit and output growth in periphery countries. However, a common global shock that leads to a credit crunch across the globe gives rise to a sharper spike in interest rates and a deeper recession in periphery countries, while a credit flight to the core alleviates the adverse consequences in these countries.