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作者：Antras, Pol; de Gortari, Alonso
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper develops a multi-stage general-equilibrium model of global value chains (GVCs) and studies the specialization of countries within GVCs in a world with barriers to international trade. With costly trade, the optimal location of production of a given stage in a GVC is not only a function of the marginal cost at which that stage can be produced in a given country, but is also shaped by the proximity of that location to the precedent and the subsequent desired locations of production. W...
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作者：Ke Shaowei; Zhang Qi
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We propose a model of preferences in which the effect of randomization on ambiguity depends on how the unknown probability law is determined. We adopt the framework of Anscombe and Aumann (1963) and relax the axioms. In the resulting representation of the individual's preference, the individual has a collection of sets of priors M. She believes that before she moves, nature has chosen an unknown scenario (a set of priors) from M, and from that scenario, nature will choose a prior after she mov...
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作者：Liu, Laura; Moon, Hyungsik Roger; Schorfheide, Frank
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Southern California; Yonsei University; University of Pennsylvania; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross-sectional information in panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients under a correlated random effects distribution. This formula utilizes cross-sectional information to transform the unit-specific (quasi) maximum likelihood estimator into an approximation of the posterior mean under a prior distribution that equals the populat...
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作者：Bernheim, B. Douglas; Sprenger, Charles
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), the leading behavioral account of decisionmaking under uncertainty, avoids the dominance violations implicit in Prospect Theory (PT) by assuming that the probability weight applied to a given outcome depends on its ranking. We devise a simple and direct nonparametric method for measuring the change in relative probability weights resulting from a change in payoff ranks. We find no evidence that these weights are even modestly sensitive to ranks. Conventional c...
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作者：Lipnowski, Elliot; Ravid, Doron
作者单位：Columbia University; University of Chicago
摘要：We study a model of cheap talk with one substantive assumption: The sender's preferences are state independent. Our main observation is that such a sender gains credibility by degrading self-serving information. Using this observation, we examine the sender's benefits from communication, assess the value of commitment, and explicitly solve for sender-optimal equilibria in three examples. A key result is a geometric characterization of the value of cheap talk, described by thequasiconcave envel...
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作者：Ottonello, Pablo; Winberry, Thomas
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：We study the role of financial frictions and firm heterogeneity in determining the investment channel of monetary policy. Empirically, we find that firms with low default risk-those with low debt burdens and high distance to default- are the most responsive to monetary shocks. We interpret these findings using a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with default risk. In our model, low-risk firms are more responsive to monetary shocks because they face a flatter marginal cost curve for financ...
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作者：Cattaneo, Matias D.; Jansson, Michael; Nagasawa, Kenichi
作者单位：Princeton University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; CREATES; University of Warwick
摘要：This paper proposes a valid bootstrap-based distributional approximation forM-estimators exhibiting a Chernoff (1964)-type limiting distribution. For estimators of this kind, the standard nonparametric bootstrap is inconsistent. The method proposed herein is based on the nonparametric bootstrap, but restores consistency by altering the shape of the criterion function defining the estimator whose distribution we seek to approximate. This modification leads to a generic and easy-to-implement res...
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作者：Kuersteiner, Guido M.; Prucha, Ingmar R.
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：This paper considers a class of generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimators for general dynamic panel models, allowing for weakly exogenous covariates and cross-sectional dependence due to spatial lags, unspecified common shocks, and time-varying interactive effects. We significantly expand the scope of the existing literature by allowing for endogenous time-varying spatial weight matrices without imposing explicit structural assumptions on how the weights are formed. An important area of ...
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作者：Pei, Harry
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：A patient player privately observes a persistent state and interacts with an infinite sequence of myopic uninformed players. The patient player is either a strategic type who maximizes his payoff or one of several commitment types who mechanically play the same action in every period. I focus on situations in which the uninformed player's best reply to a commitment action depends on the state and where the total probability of commitment types is sufficiently small. I show that the patient pla...
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作者：Ergin, Haluk; Sonmez, Tayfun; Unver, M. Utku
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Boston College
摘要：Liver exchange has been practiced in small numbers, mainly to overcome blood-type incompatibility between patients and their living donors. A donor can donate either his smaller left lobe or the larger right lobe, although the former option is safer. Despite its elevated risk, right-lobe transplantation is often utilized due to size-compatibility requirement with the patient. We model liver exchange as a market-design problem, focusing on logistically simpler two-way exchanges, and introduce a...
