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作者：Bolton, Patrick; Santos, Tano; Scheinkman, Jose A.
作者单位：Columbia University; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We propose an origination-and-contingent-distribution model of banking, in which liquidity demand by short-term investors (banks) can be met with cash reserves (inside liquidity) or sales of assets (outside liquidity) to long-term investors (hedge funds and pension funds). Outside liquidity is a more efficient source, but asymmetric information about asset quality can introduce a friction in the form of excessively early asset trading in anticipation of a liquidity shock, excessively high cash...
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作者：Barro, Robert J.; Redlick, Charles J.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：For U.S. annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0.4-0.5 contemporaneously and 0.6-0.7 over 2 years. If the change in defense spending is permanent (gauged by Ramey's defense news variable), the multipliers are higher by 0.1-0.2. Since all estimated multipliers are significantly less than 1, greater spending crowds out other components of GDP, particularly investment. The lack of good instruments prevents estimation of reliable multipli...
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作者：Hallak, Juan Carlos; Schott, Peter K.
作者单位：Universidad Mayor de San Andres; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University
摘要：We develop a method for decomposing countries' observed export prices into quality versus quality-adjusted components using information contained in trade balances. Holding observed export prices constant, countries with trade surpluses are inferred to offer higher quality than countries running trade deficits. We account for variation in trade balances induced by horizontal and vertical differentiation, and we estimate the evolution of manufacturing quality for top exporters from 1989 to 2003...
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作者：Kremer, Michael; Leino, Jessica; Miguel, Edward; Zwane, Alix Peterson
作者单位：Harvard University; Brookings Institution; National Bureau of Economic Research; The World Bank; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
摘要：Using a randomized evaluation in Kenya, we measure health impacts of spring protection, an investment that improves source water quality. We also estimate households' valuation of spring protection and simulate the welfare impacts of alternatives to the current system of common property rights in water, which limits incentives for private investment. Spring infrastructure investments reduce fecal contamination by 66%, but household water quality improves less, due to recontamination. Child dia...
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作者：Ramey, Valerie A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Standard vector autoregression (VAR) identification methods find that government spending raises consumption and real wages; the Ramey-Shapiro narrative approach finds the opposite. I show that a key difference in the approaches is the timing. Both professional forecasts and the narrative approach shocks Granger-cause the VAR shocks, implying that these shocks are missing the timing of the news. Motivated by the importance of measuring anticipations, I use a narrative method to construct riche...
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作者：Athey, Susan; Levin, Jonathan; Seira, Enrique
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study entry and bidding patterns in sealed bid and open auctions. Using data from the U.S. Forest Service timber auctions, we document a set of systematic effects: sealed bid auctions attract more small bidders, shift the allocation toward these bidders, and can also generate higher revenue. A private value auction model with endogenous participation can account for these qualitative effects of auction format. We estimate the model's parameters and show that it can explain the quantitative ...
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作者：Card, David; Dahl, Gordon B.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：We study the link between family violence and the emotional cues associated with wins and losses by professional football teams. We hypothesize that the risk of violence is affected by the gain-loss utility of game outcomes around a rationally expected reference point. Our empirical analysis uses police reports of violent incidents on Sundays during the professional football season. Controlling for the pregame point spread and the size of the local viewing audience, we find that upset losses (...
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作者：Ellingsen, Tore; Kristiansen, Eirik Gaard
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：We develop a model of financial contracting under imperfect enforcement. Financial contracts are designed to keep entrepreneurs from diverting project returns, but enforcement is probabilistic and penalties are limited. The model rationalizes the prevalence of straight debt and common stock, and its predictions are consistent with a host of empirical capital structure regularities. JEL Codes: G32.
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作者：Maggi, Giovanni; Staiger, Robert W.
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：Although disputes are typically treated as synonymous with concerns about enforcement in economic models of trade agreements, in reality most WTO disputes seem to concern the interpretation of vague provisions, or instances where the agreement is silent. And some have suggested that the WTO's Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) could usefully grant exceptions to rigid contractual obligations. These activist DSB roles could help complete an incomplete contract. But how activist should the DSB be? Sho...
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作者：Malmendier, Ulrike; Nagel, Stefan
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We investigate whether individual experiences of macroeconomic shocks affect financial risk taking, as often suggested for the generation that experienced the Great Depression. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances from 1960 to 2007, we find that individuals who have experienced low stock market returns throughout their lives so far report lower willingness to take financial risk, are less likely to participate in the stock market, invest a lower fraction of their liquid assets in st...
