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作者：Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Chicago
摘要：We study how different forms of communication influence inflation expectations in a randomized controlled trial using nearly 20,000 US individuals. We elicit individuals' inflation expectations and then provide eight different forms of information regarding inflation. Reading the actual Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement has about the same average effect on expectations as simply being told about the Federal Reserve's inflation target. Reading news articles about the most recent FO...
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作者：Grenet, Julien; He, YingHua; Kubler, Dorothea
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Paris School of Economics; Rice University; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Technical University of Berlin
摘要：We document quasi-experimental evidence against the common assumption in the matching literature that agents have full information on their own preferences. In Germany's university admissions, the first stages of the Gale-Shapley algorithm are implemented in real time, allowing for multiple offers per student. We demonstrate that nonexploding early offers are accepted more often than later offers, despite not being more desirable. These results, together with survey evidence and a theoretical ...
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作者：Yoder, Nathan
作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia
摘要：A principal (e.g., the US government) contracts with a researcher with unknown costs (e.g., a vaccine developer) to conduct a costly experiment. This contracting problem has a novel feature that captures the difference between the form of an experiment and the strength of its results: researchers face a problem of information design rather than optimal effort. Using a novel comparative static for Bayesian persuasion settings, I characterize the optimal contract and show how experimentation is ...
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作者：Doran, Kirk; Gelber, Alexander; Isen, Adam
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; United States Department of the Treasury
摘要：We compare winning and losing firms in lotteries for H-1B visas, matching administrative data on these lotteries to administrative tax data on US firms and to approved US patents. Winning one additional H-1B visa crowds out about 1.5 other workers at the firm. Additional H-1Bs have insignificant and at most modest effects on firm innovation. More general evidence from the universe of US firms and the universe of H-1B visas using alternative estimation strategies is consistent with these result...
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作者：Foster, Andrew D.; Rosenzweig, Mark R.
作者单位：Brown University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University
摘要：We show that labor market transaction costs explain why the smallest farms are more efficient than slightly larger farms in most low-income countries and that increases in machine capacity with operational scale result in the globally observed rising upper tail of productivity. We find evidence consistent with these mechanisms using Indian data, and we show that if all Indian farms were at the minimum scale required to maximize the return on land, the number of farms would be reduced by 82% an...
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作者：Jovanovic, Boyan; Menkveld, Albert J.
作者单位：New York University; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：If bidding in a pure common-value auction is costly and bidders do not know how many others are also bidding, all equilibria are in mixed strategies. Participation is probabilistic, and bid prices are dispersed. The symmetric equilibrium is unique and yields simple analytic expressions. We use them to, for example, show that bid prices exhibit negative skewness. The expressions are further used to estimate the model based on bidding on a Standard & Poor's 500 security. We find that the number ...
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作者：Martinez, Luis R.
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：I study the overstatement of economic growth in autocracies by comparing self-reported GDP figures to night-time light recorded by satellites from outer space. I show that the night-time-light elasticity of GDP is larger in authoritarian regimes, even accounting for differences in multiple country characteristics. This autocracy gradient in the elasticity is greater when the incentive to exaggerate economic growth is stronger or when the constraints on exaggeration are weaker. The results sugg...
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作者：Arque-Castells, Pere; Spulber, Daniel F.
作者单位：University of Groningen; Northwestern University
摘要：The canonical approach to measuring private and social returns to R&D assumes diffusion through spillovers. We develop a general framework that allows R&D to diffuse through both spillovers and voluntary technology transfers. To operationalize the framework, we create a data set of interactions in the market for technology between publicly held US firms. We use changes in tax incentives for R&D to identify causal effects. Taking market channels into account decreases the observed difference be...
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作者：Callander, Steven; Carbajal, Juan Carlos
作者单位：Stanford University; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：Polarization is both a description of the current state of politics and a dynamic path that has rippled across the political domain over decades. We provide a simple model that explains why polarization appears incrementally and why it was elites who polarized first and more dramatically, whereas mass polarization came later and has been less pronounced. We incorporate an ostensibly unrelated finding about how voters form preferences into a dynamic model of elections. This change, when combine...
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作者：Adhvaryu, Achyuta; Kala, Namrata; Nyshadham, Anant
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study how managers mitigate the negative impacts of environmental shocks. Pairing productivity data from a garment firm with granular measures of air pollution, we show that productivity suffers as a result of pollution shocks but that managers respond by reallocating particularly sensitive workers to improve worker-to-task matches, thus mitigating team productivity losses. Responses are smaller for more inattentive managers; these same managers are also least able to mitigate productivity ...
