Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/718982
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 1537-1584
• 关键词: central bank communication; FIRMS

摘要

We study how different forms of communication influence inflation expectations in a randomized controlled trial using nearly 20,000 US individuals. We elicit individuals' inflation expectations and then provide eight different forms of information regarding inflation. Reading the actual Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement has about the same average effect on expectations as simply being told about the Federal Reserve's inflation target. Reading news articles about the most recent FOMC meetings results in a forecast revision that is smaller by half. This exogenous variation in inflation expectations has subsequent effects on household spending reported in scanner and survey data.