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作者：de Clippel, Geoffroy; Zhang, Xu
作者单位：Brown University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology (Guangzhou); Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：Following Kamenica and Gentzkow, this paper studies persuasion as an information design problem. We investigate how mistakes in probabilistic inference impact optimal persuasion. The concavification method is shown to extend naturally to a large class of belief updating rules, which we identify and characterize. This class comprises many non-Bayesian models discussed in the literature. We apply this new technique to gain insight into the revelation principle, the ranking of updating rules, whe...
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作者：Aguiar, Mark; Chatterjee, Satyajit; Cole, Harold; Stangebye, Zachary
作者单位：Princeton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Pennsylvania; University of Notre Dame
摘要：Lack of commitment at the time of auction to repayment of imminently maturing debt can generate a run on debt and immediate default. We show that the same lack of commitment leads to other possible self-fulfilling crises, including issuance of more debt at depressed prices, or a sudden stop (forced austerity) in which debt issuance is sharply curtailed. Both outcomes stem from the government's incentive to eliminate uncertainty about imminent payments at the time of auction by altering the lev...
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作者：Dewitte, Ruben
作者单位：Ghent University
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作者：Foerster, Andrew T.; Hornstein, Andreas; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Watson, Mark W.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We describe how capital accumulation and the network structure of US production interact to amplify the effects of sectoral trend growth rates in total factor productivity and labor on trend GDP (gross domestic product) growth. We derive expressions that conveniently summarize this long-run amplification effect by way of sectoral multipliers. We estimate that sector-specific factors have historically accounted for approximately three-fourths of long-run changes in GDP growth. Trend GDP growth ...
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作者：Fehr, Dietmar; Fink, Gunther; Jack, B. Kelsey
作者单位：Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Basel; Swiss Tropical & Public Health Institute; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：We investigate the link between poverty and decision-making in a sample of farmers in Zambia, who were given the opportunity to exchange randomly assigned household items for alternative items of similar value. Analyzing a total of 5,842 trading decisions and leveraging multiple sources of variation in financial constraints, we show that exchange asymmetries decrease in magnitude when participants are more constrained. This result is robust to experimental procedures and is not mediated by cha...
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作者：Bald, Anthony; Chyn, Eric; Hastings, Justine; Machelett, Margarita
作者单位：Harvard University; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Banco de Espana
摘要：This paper measures impacts of removing children from families investigated for abuse or neglect. We use removal tendencies of child protection investigators as an instrument. Our analysis focuses on young children investigated before age 6 and finds that removal significantly increases test scores and reduces grade repetition for girls. There are no detectable impacts for boys. This pattern of results does not appear to be driven by heterogeneity in preremoval characteristics, foster placemen...
