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作者：Dal B'o, Ernesto; Finan, Frederico; Folke, Olle; Persson, Torsten; Rickne, Johanna
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Uppsala University; Stockholm University; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
摘要：Can a democracy attract competent leaders, while attaining broad representation? Economicmodels suggest that free-riding incentives and lower opportunity costs give the less competent a comparative advantage at entering political life. Moreover, if elites have more human capital, selecting on competence may lead to uneven representation. This article examines patterns of political selection among the universe of municipal politicians and national legislators in Sweden, using extraordinarily ri...
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作者：DellaVigna, Stefano; Lindner, Attila; Reizer, Balazs; Schmieder, Johannes F.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; University College London; HUN-REN; HUN-REN Centre for Economic & Regional Studies; IFS; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Central European University; Boston University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We propose a model of job search with reference-dependent preferences, with loss aversion relative to recent income (the reference point). In this model, newly unemployed individuals search hard since consumption is below their reference point. Over time, though, they get used to lower income and thus reduce their search effort. In anticipation of a benefit cut, their search effort rises again, then declines once they get accustomed to the lower postcut benefit level. The model fits the typica...
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作者：Haushofer, Johannes; Shapiro, Jeremy
作者单位：Princeton University
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作者：Deming, David J.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The labor market increasingly rewards social skills. Between 1980 and 2012, jobs requiring high levels of social interaction grew by nearly 12 percentage points as a share of the U.S. labor force. Math-intensive but less social jobs-including many STEM occupations-shrank by 3.3 percentage points over the same period. Employment and wage growth were particularly strong for jobs requiring high levels of both math skill and social skills. To understand these patterns, I develop a model of team pr...
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作者：Drechsler, Itamar; Savov, Alexi; Schnabl, Philipp
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We present a new channel for the transmission of monetary policy, the deposits channel. We show that when the Fed funds rate rises, banks widen the spreads they charge on deposits, and deposits flow out of the banking system. We present a model where this is due to market power in deposit markets. Consistent with the market power mechanism, deposit spreads increase more and deposits flow out more in concentrated markets. This is true even when we control for lending opportunities by only compa...
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作者：Larcom, Shaun; Rauch, Ferdinand; Willems, Tim
作者单位：University of Cambridge; University of Oxford; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We present evidence that a significant fraction of commuters on the London Underground do not travel on their optimal route. We show that a strike on the Underground, which forcedmany commuters to experiment with new routes, brought lasting changes in behavior. This effect is stronger for commuters who live in areas where the Underground map is more distorted, which points to the importance of informational imperfections. Information resulting from the strike improved network efficiency. Searc...
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作者：Fajgelbaum, Pablo D.; Schaal, Edouard; Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty and business cycles in which short-lived shocks can generate long-lasting recessions. In the model, higher uncertainty about fundamentals discourages investment. Since agents learn from the actions of others, information flows slowly in times of low activity and uncertainty remains high, further discouraging investment. The economy displays uncertainty traps: self-reinforcing episodes of high uncertainty and low activity. Although the economy recov...
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作者：Andrews, Isaiah; Gentzkow, Matthew; Shapiro, Jesse M.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; Brown University
摘要：We propose a local measure of the relationship between parameter estimates and the moments of the data they depend on. Our measure can be computed at negligible cost even for complex structural models. We argue that reporting this measure can increase the transparency of structural estimates, making it easier for readers to predict the way violations of identifying assumptions would affect the results. When the key assumptions are orthogonality between error terms and excluded instruments, we ...
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作者：Mian, Atif; Sufi, Amir; Verner, Emil
作者单位：Princeton University; University of Chicago
摘要：An increase in the household debt to GDP ratio predicts lower GDP growth and higher unemployment in the medium run for an unbalanced panel of 30 countries from 1960 to 2012. Low mortgage spreads are associated with an increase in the household debt to GDP ratio and a decline in subsequent GDP growth, highlighting the importance of credit supply shocks. Economic forecasters systematically over-predict GDP growth at the end of household debt booms, suggesting an important role of flawed expectat...
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作者：Angrist, Joshua D.; Hull, Peter D.; Pathak, Parag A.; Walters, Christopher R.
