UNCERTAINTY TRAPS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fajgelbaum, Pablo D.; Schaal, Edouard; Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); University of Pennsylvania
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjx021
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 1641-1692
• 关键词: business; INVESTMENT; DYNAMICS; prices; news

摘要

We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty and business cycles in which short-lived shocks can generate long-lasting recessions. In the model, higher uncertainty about fundamentals discourages investment. Since agents learn from the actions of others, information flows slowly in times of low activity and uncertainty remains high, further discouraging investment. The economy displays uncertainty traps: self-reinforcing episodes of high uncertainty and low activity. Although the economy recovers quickly after small shocks, large temporary shocks may have long-lasting effects on the level of activity. The economy is subject to an information externality but uncertainty traps may remain in the efficient allocation. Embedding the mechanism in a standard business cycle framework, we find that endogenous uncertainty increases the persistence of large recessions and improves the performance of the model in accounting for the Great Recession.