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作者：Deshpande, Manasi; Mueller-Smith, Michael
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We estimate the effect of losing Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits at age 18 on criminal justice and employment outcomes over the next two decades. To estimate this effect, we use a regression discontinuity design in the likelihood of being reviewed for SSI eligibility at age 18 created by the 1996 welfare reform law. We evaluate this natural experiment with Social Security Administration data linked to records from the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System. We find that SSI...
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作者：KLINE, P. A. T. R. I. C. K.; ROSE, E. V. A. N. K.; WALTERS, C. H. R. I. S. T. O. P. H. E. R. R.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：We study the results of a massive nationwide correspondence experiment sending more than 83,000 fictitious applications with randomized characteristics to geographically dispersed jobs posted by 108 of the largest U.S. employers. Distinctively Black names reduce the probability of employer contact by 2.1 percentage points relative to distinctively white names. The magnitude of this racial gap in contact rates differs substantially across firms, exhibiting a between-company standard deviation o...
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作者：Carleton, Tamma; Jina, Amir; Delgado, Michael; Greenstone, Michael; Houser, Trevor; Hsiang, Solomon; Hultgren, Andrew; Kopp, Robert E.; McCusker, Kelly E.; Nath, Ishan; Rising, James; Rode, Ashwin; Seo, Hee Kwon; Viaene, Arvid; Yuan, Jiacan; Zhang, Alice Tianbo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Princeton University; University of Delaware; The World Bank; Fudan University; Washington & Lee University
摘要：Using 40 countries' subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extre6me cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed-preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we est...
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作者：Greenberg, Kyle; Gudgeon, Matthew; Isen, Adam; Miller, Corbin; Patterson, Richard
作者单位：United States Military Academy; United States Department of Defense; United States Army; United States Department of the Treasury; Brigham Young University
摘要：Since the beginning of the all-volunteer era, millions of young Americans have chosen to enlist in the military. These volunteers disproportionately come from disadvantaged backgrounds, and while some aspects of military service are likely to be beneficial, exposure to violence and other elements of service could worsen outcomes. This article links the universe of army applicants between 1990 and 2011 to their federal tax records and other administrative data and uses two eligibility threshold...
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作者：Montiel Olea, Jose Luis; Ortoleva, Pietro; Pai, Mallesh M.; Prat, Andrea
作者单位：Cornell University; Princeton University; Rice University; Columbia University
摘要：Different agents need to make a prediction. They observe identical data, but have different models: they predict using different explanatory variables. We study which agent believes they have the best predictive ability-as measured by the smallest subjective posterior mean squared prediction error-and show how it depends on the sample size. With small samples, we present results suggesting it is an agent using a low-dimensional model. With large samples, it is generally an agent with a high-di...
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作者：Barr, Andrew; Eggleston, Jonathan; Smith, Alexander A.
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; United States Department of Defense; United States Army; United States Military Academy
摘要：We provide new evidence that cash transfers following the birth of a first child can have large and long-lasting effects on that child's outcomes. We take advantage of the January 1 birthdate cutoff for U.S. child-related tax benefits, which results in families of otherwise similar children receiving substantially different refunds during the first year of life. For the average low-income single-child family in our sample, this difference amounts to roughly $1,300, or 10% of income. Using the ...
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作者：Knutsson, Daniel; Tyrefors, Bjorn
作者单位：Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Stockholm University
摘要：Economic theory predicts that outsourcing public services to private firms reduces costs, but the effect on quality is ambiguous. We explore quality differences between publicly and privately owned ambulances in Stockholm County, Sweden, a setting where patients are as good as randomly assigned to ambulances with different ownership status. We find that private ambulances reduce costs and perform better on contracted measures such as response time, but perform worse on noncontracted measures s...
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作者：Xu, Chenzi
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：I show that a disruption to the financial sector can reshape the patterns of global trade for decades. I study the first modern global banking crisis originating in London in 1866 and collect archival loan records that link multinational banks headquartered there to their lending abroad. Countries exposed to bank failures in London immediately exported significantly less and did not recover their lost growth relative to unexposed places. Their market shares within each destination also remaine...
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作者：Cai, Jing; Wang, Shing-Yi
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using a randomized experiment with an automobile manufacturing firm in China, we measure the effects of letting workers evaluate their managers on worker and firm outcomes. In the treatment teams, workers evaluate their managers monthly. We find that providing feedback leads to significant reductions in worker turnover and increases in team-level productivity. In addition, workers report higher levels of happiness and well-being. The evidence suggests that these results are driven by learning ...
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作者：Hermo, Santiago; Paallysaho, Miika; Seim, David; Shapiro, Jesse M.
作者单位：Brown University; Stockholm University; Uppsala University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A large literature in cognitive science studies the puzzling Flynn effect of rising fluid intelligence (reasoning skill) in rich countries. We develop an economic model in which a cohort's mix of skills is determined by different skills' relative returns in the labor market and by the technology for producing skills. We estimate the model using administrative data from Sweden. Combining data from exams taken at military enlistment with earnings records from the tax register, we document an inc...
