Labor Market Returns and the Evolution of Cognitive Skills: Theory and Evidence*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hermo, Santiago; Paallysaho, Miika; Seim, David; Shapiro, Jesse M.
• 署名单位: Brown University; Stockholm University; Uppsala University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjac022
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 2309-2361
• 关键词: intelligence; ability; performance; INEQUALITY; VOCABULARY; ECONOMICS; education; decline; GROWTH; brain

摘要

A large literature in cognitive science studies the puzzling Flynn effect of rising fluid intelligence (reasoning skill) in rich countries. We develop an economic model in which a cohort's mix of skills is determined by different skills' relative returns in the labor market and by the technology for producing skills. We estimate the model using administrative data from Sweden. Combining data from exams taken at military enlistment with earnings records from the tax register, we document an increase in the relative labor market return to logical reasoning skill as compared to vocabulary knowledge. The estimated model implies that changes in labor market returns explain 37% of the measured increase in reasoning skill, and can also explain the decline in knowledge. An original survey of parents, an analysis of trends in school curricula, and an analysis of occupational characteristics show evidence of increasing emphasis on reasoning as compared to knowledge.