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作者：Becker, Sascha O.; Hornung, Erik; Woessmann, Ludger
作者单位：University of Warwick; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich
摘要：Research increasingly stresses the role of human capital in modern economic development. Existing historical evidence-mostly from British textile industries-however, rejects that formal education was important for the Industrial Revolution. Our new evidence from technological follower Prussia uses a unique school enrollment and factory employment database linking 334 counties from pre-industrial 1816 to two industrial phases in 1849 and 1882. Using pre-industrial education as instrument for la...
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作者：Branch, William A.; Evans, George W.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of Oregon; University of St Andrews
摘要：This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with leasts-quares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they need to make forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock's return. Recursive updating of both the conditional variance and the expected return implies several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles, and crashes arise w...
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作者：Hamilton, James D.; Pruitt, Seth; Borger, Scott
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We introduce a novel method for estimating a monetary policy rule using macroeconomic news. We estimate directly the policy rule agents use to form their expectations by linking news' effects on forecasts of both economic conditions and monetary policy. Evidence between 1994 and 2007 indicates that the market-perceived Federal Reserve policy rule changed: the output response vanished, and the inflation response path became more gradual but larger in long-run magnitude. These response coefficie...
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作者：Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco; Poschke, Markus
作者单位：McGill University
摘要：A declining agricultural employment share is a key feature of economic development. Its main drivers are: improvements in agricultural technology combined with Engel's law release resources from agriculture (labor push), and improvements in industrial technology attract labor out of agriculture (labor pull). We present a model with both channels and evaluate the importance using data on 12 industrialized countries since the nineteenth century. Results suggest that the pull channel dominated un...
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作者：Hall, George J.; Sargent, Thomas J.
作者单位：Brandeis University; New York University
摘要：This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of returns on the US Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from the interest payments reported by the US government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt-GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities. (JEL E23, E31, E43, G12, H63)
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作者：Eusepi, Stefano; Hobijn, Bart; Tambalotti, Andrea
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We construct a PCE-based price index whose weights minimize the welfare costs of nominal distortions: a cost-of-nominal-distortions index. We compute these weights in a multi-sector New Keynesian model, calibrated to match US data on price stickiness, labor shares, and inflation across sectors. The CONDI weights mostly depend on price stickiness. Moreover, CONDI stabilization leads to negligible welfare losses compared to the optimal policy and is better approximated by core rather than headli...
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作者：Billi, Roberto M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
摘要：This paper studies the optimal long-run inflation rate (OIR) in a small New Keynesian model, where the only policy instrument is a short-term nominal interest rate that may occasionally run against a zero lower bound (ZLB). The model allows for worst-case scenarios of misspecification. The analysis shows first, if the government optimally commits, the OIR is below 1 percent annually. Second, if the government re-optimizes each period, the OIR rises markedly to 17 percent. Third, if the governm...
