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作者：Aruoba, S. Boragan; Schorfheide, Frank
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We develop a two-sector monetary model with a centralized and decentralized market. Activities in the centralized market resemble those in a standard New Keynesian economy with price rigidities. In the decentralized market agents engage in bilateral exchanges for which money is essential. This paper is the first to formally estimate such a model, evaluate its fit based on postwar US data, and assess its money demand properties. Steady-state welfare calculations reveal that the distortions crea...
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作者：Jones, Charles I.
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：What explains the enormous differences in incomes across countries? This paper returns to two old ideas: linkages and complementarity. First, linkages between firms through intermediate goods deliver a multiplier similar to the one associated with capital in a neoclassical growth model. Because the intermediate goods share of output is about one-half, this multiplier is substantial. Second, just as a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, problems along a production chain can sharply red...
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作者：Wen, Yi
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Tsinghua University
摘要：This paper develops an analytically tractable general equilibrium model of inventory dynamics based on a precautionary stockout-avoidance motive. The model's predictions are broadly consistent with the US business cycle and key features of inventory behavior. It is also shown that technological improvement of inventory management can increase, rather than decrease, the volatility of aggregate output. Key to this seemingly counterintuitive result is that a stockout-avoidance motive leads to a p...
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作者：Fang, Lei; Rogerson, Richard
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Princeton University; Princeton University
摘要：Recent empirical work finds a negative correlation between product market regulation and aggregate employment. We examine the effect of product market regulations on hours worked in a benchmark model of time allocation. Product market regulations affect market work in effectively the same fashion as labor or consumption taxes. For product market regulations to affect aggregate market work, the key driving force is the size of income transfers associated with the regulations, and the key propag...
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作者：De Fiore, Fiorella; Teles, Pedro; Tristani, Oreste
作者单位：European Central Bank; Banco de Portugal
摘要：How should monetary policy respond to changes in financial conditions? We consider a simple model where firms are subject to shocks which may force them to default on their debt. Firms' assets and liabilities are nominal and predetermined. Monetary policy can therefore affect the real value of funds used to finance production. In this model, allowing for inflation volatility in response to aggregate shocks can be optimal; the optimal response to adverse financial shocks is to lower interest ra...
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作者：Bils, Mark; Chang, Yongsung; Kim, Sun-Bin
作者单位：University of Rochester; Yonsei University
摘要：We model worker heterogeneity in the rents from being employed in a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model of matching and unemployment. We show that heterogeneity, reflecting differences in match quality and worker assets, reduces the extent of fluctuations in separations and unemployment. We find that the model faces a trade-off it cannot produce both realistic dispersion in wage growth across workers and realistic cyclical fluctuations in unemployment. (JEL D31, E24, E32, J41, J63)
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作者：Beechey, Meredith J.; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Levin, Andrew T.
作者单位：Sveriges Riksbank; Northwestern University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper compares the evolution of long-run inflation expectations in the euro area and the United States, using evidence from financial markets and surveys of professional forecasters. Survey data indicate that long-run inflation expectations are reasonably well anchored in both economies but reveal substantially greater dispersion across forecasters' long-horizon projections of US inflation. Analysis of daily data on inflation swaps and nominal-indexed bond spreads, which gauge compensatio...
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作者：Becker, Sascha O.; Hornung, Erik; Woessmann, Ludger
作者单位：University of Warwick; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich
摘要：Research increasingly stresses the role of human capital in modern economic development. Existing historical evidence-mostly from British textile industries-however, rejects that formal education was important for the Industrial Revolution. Our new evidence from technological follower Prussia uses a unique school enrollment and factory employment database linking 334 counties from pre-industrial 1816 to two industrial phases in 1849 and 1882. Using pre-industrial education as instrument for la...
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作者：Branch, William A.; Evans, George W.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of Oregon; University of St Andrews
摘要：This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with leasts-quares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they need to make forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock's return. Recursive updating of both the conditional variance and the expected return implies several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles, and crashes arise w...
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作者：Woodford, Michael
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：This paper explains the key factors that determine the output multiplier of government purchases in New Keynesian models, through a series of simple examples that can be solved analytically. Sticky prices or wages allow for larger multipliers than in a neoclassical model, though the size of the multiplier depends crucially on the monetary policy response. A multiplier well in excess of one is possible when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound, and in this case welfare increas...
