Structural Change Out of Agriculture: Labor Push versus Labor Pull

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco; Poschke, Markus
• 署名单位: McGill University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.3.3.127
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 127-158
• 关键词: productivity; GROWTH; WORLD; TRANSFORMATION; unemployment; migration; US

摘要

A declining agricultural employment share is a key feature of economic development. Its main drivers are: improvements in agricultural technology combined with Engel's law release resources from agriculture (labor push), and improvements in industrial technology attract labor out of agriculture (labor pull). We present a model with both channels and evaluate the importance using data on 12 industrialized countries since the nineteenth century. Results suggest that the pull channel dominated until 1920 and the push channel dominated after 1960. The pull channel mattered more in countries in early stages of the structural transformation. This contrasts with modeling choices in recent literature. (JEL E23, N10, N53, O10, O47).