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作者：Saint-Paul, Gilles
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi
摘要：An ideologically biased expert faces trade-offs in model design. The perceived model must be autocoherent-its use by all agents delivers a self-confirming equilibrium. Policy may be influenced by manipulating the Keynesian multiplier or the Phillips curve parameters. Ideological bias may arise in a way that resembles well-known historical controversies. A larger reported Keynesian multiplier is favored by more left-wing economists, as is a flatter inflation output trade-off. Some combinations ...
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作者：Hall, Robert E.; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：Matching efficiency is the productivity of the process for matching job-seekers to available jobs. Job-finding is the output; vacant jobs and active job-seekers are the inputs. We develop a framework for measuring matching productivity when the population of job-seekers is heterogeneous. We find that overall matching efficiency declined smoothly over the period from 2001 through 2013. Measures of matching efficiency that neglect heterogeneity among the unemployed and also neglect job-seekers o...
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作者：Alvarez, Jorge; Benguria, Felipe; Engbom, Niklas; Moser, Christian
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Kentucky; Princeton University; Columbia University
摘要：We document a large decrease in earnings inequality in Brazil between 1996 and 2012. Using administrative linked employer-employee data, we fit-high-dimensional worker and firm fixed-effects models to understand the sources of this decrease. Firm effects account for 40 percent of the total decrease and worker effects for 29 percent. Changes in observable worker and firm characteristics contributed little to these trends. Instead, the decrease is primarily due to a compression of returns to the...
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作者：Fried, Stephie
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：A carbon tax can induce innovation in green technologies. I evaluate the quantitative impact of this channel in a dynamic, general equilibrium model with endogenous innovation in fossil, green, and nonenergy inputs. I discipline the parameters using evidence from historical oil shocks, after which both energy prices and energy innovation increased substantially. I find that a carbon tax induces large changes in innovation. This innovation response increases the effectiveness of the policy at r...
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作者：Mukoyama, Toshihiko; Patterson, Christina; Sahin, Aysegul
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of Virginia; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：We create a novel measure of job search effort exploiting the American Time Use and Current Population Surveys. We examine the cyclicality of search effort using time-series, cross-state, and individual variation and find that it is countercyclical. We then set up a search and matching model with endogenous search effort and show that search effort does not amplify labor market fluctuations but rather dampens them. Lastly, we examine the role of search effort in driving recent unemployment dyn...
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作者：Garin, Julio; Pries, Michael J.; Sims, Eric R.
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont McKenna College; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A principal components decomposition of sectoral IP data reveals that the contribution of aggregate shocks to the variance of aggregate output declined from about 70 percent in the period 1967-1983 to about 30 percent after 1983. We develop an islands model with two sectors and costly labor reallocation to investigate how this change in the relative importance of shocks alters business cycle moments. A version of the model with relatively more important sectoral shocks results in a sizeable de...
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作者：Barany, Zsofia L.; Siegel, Christian
作者单位：Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); University of Kent
摘要：We document that job polarization-contrary to the consensushas started as early as the 1950s in the United States: middle-wage workers have been losing both in terms of employment and average wage growth compared to low-and high-wage workers. Given that polarization is a long-run phenomenon and closely linked to the shift from manufacturing to services, we propose a structural change driven explanation, where we explicitly model the sectoral choice of workers. Our simple model does remarkably ...
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作者：Ordonez, Guillermo
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Banking regulation is beneficial because it constrains banks' portfolios to prevent excessive risk taking. But given that regulators usually know less than a bank about its investment opportunities, regulation comes at the cost of foregoing profitable investments. I argue that shadow banking improves welfare because it provides a channel to escape excessive regulation that is asymmetrically more valuable for banks with access to efficient investment opportunities. I propose a novel interventio...
